2024 budget delivers minor surplus but deficits loom over economy as Australia’s spending ramps up

Major shortfalls predicted over next two years as Jim Chalmers downplays potential for inflationary pressures

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The federal budget will swing to sizable deficits from the coming financial year as government spending picks up, a switch that the treasurer, Jim Chalmers, hopes will not stoke inflationary pressures in the economy.

The budget will post a forecast surplus in the current year of $9.3bn – equivalent to 0.3% of gross domestic product – making it the first back-to-back surplus since 2007-08. The ledger, though, will slip sharply into a deficit of $28.3bn (1% of GDP) and further into the red at $42.8bn (1.5% of GDP) the following year.

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