At BRICS summit, how far will Putin go to back Iran?

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With attention on Russia's support for its ally Iran, President Masoud Pezeshkian arrived at the BRICS summit, aiming to alleviate pressure on Iran’s struggling economy while bolstering its defense against a potential Israeli attack.

A meeting between Pezeshkian and President Vladimir Putin has been set for later Wednesday, with an expectation that the countries will sign a “comprehensive strategic partnership” treaty to bolster the already-close ties.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov refused to comment when asked whether the treaty will include mutual military assistance.

Located in the city of Kazan, the summit is the first since Iran, Egypt and the UAE joined BRICS as full members – with the goal of reducing reliance on Western-dominated institutions like the IMF and World Bank.

With Iran facing significant economic challenges, Pezeshkian's appearance at the BRICS leaders' meeting will likely see him attempt to strengthen and further financial and trade ties.

Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian attends the extended format meeting of the BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia on October 23, 2024. Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian attends the extended format meeting of the BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia on October 23, 2024.

While many experts point out that US sanctions on Tehran, over a plethora of issues like its sponsoring of terrorism, have taken a toll on the country’s economy – trade between Iran and its largest trading partners has also declined further in 2023.

Iran’s main customer for oil, China, significantly reduced its purchases this year. Adding further to its strain, Tehran saw a 26% drop in trade with India, a 17% decline with Russia, and a 33% falloff with Turkey.

Ahead of the summit, Iran's central bank governor, Mohammad-Reza Farzin, revealed Tehran’s intent to join the BRICS-led New Development Bank. Analysts say the move aims to support the state’s development efforts independently of the World Bank and other Western financial systems – a priority the central bank chief suggested would be central to discussions at the summit.

Iran’s focus, though, won’t solely be on the economy, as the state braces for a promised Israeli attack, after its own barrage of missiles into Israel on October 1.

Given Iran's support for Russia in its invasion of Ukraine, Pezeshkian may seize this opportunity to seek assurances for advanced weapons, such as long-range air defense systems and fighter jets.

On that front, Russia has made it clear that it will not abandon Iran, amid the threat of an Israeli retaliation, as confirmed by a Kremlin spokesperson to CNBC on Tuesday.

“We are developing cooperation with Iran in a variety of areas. We intend to do this further,” Kremlin Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov said.

However, as Iran's regional presence has been seriously threatened by Israel, which also intends to launch an attack to punish Tehran for its October 1 missile attack, there is little Russia can do. Last week, Iranian media was hinting at some sort of Russian or Chinese mediation in the Middle East, but there is little sign of either.

For Putin, the summit is a way to demonstrate that Russia is far from isolated, showcasing unity among its allies on the global stage. This, despite many attendees—including Saudi Arabia and Iran—harboring longstanding disagreements and differences.

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