6 months ago
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To the Nuclear Free Local Authorities, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s announcement that a General Election will be held on 4 July casts doubt on the advancement of the outgoing Conservative Government’s ambitious plan for new nuclear generation.
With Labour riding high in the polls, should voting match public sentiment, then the outcome will be a change of government in a landslide. Interestingly this election will be the first one held in July since 1945, and we all know how that went.
Although technically wedded to the pursuance of new nuclear, whether Labour in office continues to tread a nuclear path is far from certain. Labour ministers would face a plethora of competing financial demands from the onset of their new term in government. In its last period in office (1997 to 2010), Labour built no new nuclear power plants; consequently, the civil Nuclear Roadmap may eventually prove to be as washed out as Rishi Sunak’s rain sodden jacket.
Announcement day was eventful from the onset. Nuclear Minister Andrew Bowie had been scheduled to meet representatives from anti-nuclear NGOs in-person at the London offices of his Department of Energy Security and Net Zero. Others were due to join the Minister online. Although the meeting had been arranged weeks in advance, Mr Bowie decided instead to cut and run; there were rumours that Mr Bowie had decided to make a last-minute trip to Wylfa in North Wales, but, as these have so far been unsubstantiated, perhaps he was just clearing his desk?
Claire Coutinho in her last act as Energy Secretary had just announced the non-news that the Wylfa site has been earmarked as the government’s preferred location for the third gigawatt nuclear power plant. This has been patently obvious to anyone observing developments in the nuclear industry for some time. Mr Sunak, and before him Boris Johnson, have positively gushed over the ‘virtues’ of developing this site over any others and the recent acquisition of the site with Oldbury for £160 million by Great British Nuclear from former owners Horizon earlier this year made this choice a certainty.
In January, the Conservative government published its civil Nuclear Roadmap with its pipedream plan to complete three new large nuclear power stations, deploy a fleet of so-called ‘small’ and ‘advanced’ modular reactors, and invest in fusion power research and the development of new nuclear fuels.
If built, and remember previous plans have come to naught, the Wylfa B plant would be similar in size to those in construction at Hinkley Point C in Somerset and announced for Sizewell C in Suffolk. Both are being built by French state-owned electricity generator, EDF, equipped with two European Pressurised Reactors (EPRs) with 3.2 Gigawatt generating capacity.
Although Hinkley is well behind schedule and vastly over budget and EDF is financially committed to Sizewell C, nonetheless the company has also expressed an interest in developing Wylfa B. Also known to be interested are an American consortium of Bechtel and Westinghouse and South Korean power generator KEPCO.
Wylfa B , like Sizewell C, would be built at the financial risk of the British taxpayer who will be expected to derisk the project for the developer by providing them with periodic payments to reimburse them for their investment, and meet any cost and time overruns, through the imposition of a nuclear levy on electricity bills.
The Wylfa news will have been welcomed by the local Conservative MP for Ynys Mon, Virginia Crosbie, who vainly styles herself the Atomic Kitten. Ms Crosbie has spent much of her time in office championing her constituency as a nuclear energy island, and she now faces a strong challenge from Plaid Cymru candidate, Ynys Mon Council Leader, Llinos Medi.
Yet only, as recently as February 2021, in its 906-page report the UK Planning Inspectorate recommended refusal of a Development Consent Order for a plan by Horizon, a subsidiary of Hitachi, to build a new nuclear power plant on the site. Government appointed planning officers cited the likely impact on the Tern seabird populations around the Cemlyn Bay and on Sites of Special Scientific Interest. They also found the influx up to 7500 workers during construction “could even with the proposed mitigation, adversely affect tourism, the local economy, health and wellbeing and Welsh language and culture”.
The application was subsequently withdrawn by Horizon with Hitachi citing a lack of government funding and the inability of the consortium to secure alternate private sector finance.
Responding to the announcement, Robat Idris said on behalf of Pobl Atal Wylfa B/People Against Wylfa B (PAWB):
“Nuclear is a dinosaur of outdated technology.
“They talk about energy security – but where are Britain’s uranium mines? One thing is for sure – we have plenty of natural resources – wind, sun, hydro and marine. And commercial investments around the world are piling into renewable energy. We can transform energy by 2030 with the right political will and investments. Not so with nuclear.
“And in Wales suffering from abysmal energy poverty, we must claim ownership of the green energy revolution that replaces nuclear energy – that won’t happen with external corporations and the British Government bulldozing their way into using us for their own good.”
Dylan Morgan from PAWB added:
“We know that power plants are well over time and over the cost estimate by the time they become operational.
“We face two existential challenges as humanity – climate change and nuclear extinction. The Wylfa B power plant would be too late to contribute to the fight against climate change.
“The Wylfa B power plant would add to the dangers of nuclear war and be a potential target for terrorism.
A dinosaur that certainly shouldn’t be resurrected!”
The Nuclear Minister’s appearance at the DESNZ Nuclear NGO Forum was the first scheduled in almost a year. Forum member NFLA Secretary Richard Outram joined colleagues in sending a strongly worded letter of protest to Mr Bowie for failing to honour his commitment.
Richard said: “It is highly regrettable that at the last minute the Minister chose to cancel his appearance rather than facing the forensic questions lined up for him by my esteemed expert colleagues in the NGO group. This is par for the course as the NGO group has frequently been offered last-minute half-apologies by civil servants on behalf of an absentee Minister”.
Stop Sizewell C critiqued the prospects for Sizewell C.
Executive Director Alison Downes said: “The impossibility of a Final Investment Decision on Sizewell C being made before the election lets the Conservatives off the hook for signing away another HS2. It also presents a likely Labour government, looking to drive down bills and reach net zero by 2030, an opportunity to focus on more cost-effective renewable projects. We are going to do everything in our power to ensure that this election signals the death knell for slow, expensive, risky Sizewell C.”
Stop Sizewell C understands that the capital raise is still ongoing, with final bids reportedly due to be submitted by the end of June. A likely change in government may increase the risks perceived by investors and influence or even deter bids. The capital raise will be subject to a Value for Money (VfM) assessment. If, as reported, investors are seeking high returns, the VfM – and therefore the capital raise – is likely to fail.
In this event, Ministers would have to decide whether to take a Financial Investment Decision with the taxpayer as Sizewell C’s majority stakeholder. An additional Value for Money assessment will be required as well as multiple internal procedural steps and approvals. While Labour’s stated position is in favour of Sizewell C, the implications of having to make a FID requiring billions of pounds of taxpayers’ money and which would additionally push much of the risk onto household bills via use of the Regulated Asset Base funding model, in addition to the impossibility of Sizewell C contributing to the goal of net zero by 2030, may give pause. Rising costs and inflation make the current government’s estimate of a Sizewell C RAB costing consumers on average £1 month improbable.
A new government would be expected to conduct a Spending Review ahead of an autumn budget, which seems likely to also lead to a pause before any decision about a Sizewell C FID was made.
Even in the very unlikely event a FID could be fast-tracked, pre-election guidance states that Ministers should “observe discretion” in making big announcements. This must be especially pertinent if a large commitment of taxpayers’ money was necessary for a Sizewell C FID. £2.5 billion in taxpayers’ money has already been committed for preliminary works on the project.
Stop Sizewell C is planning to invite election candidates to an Energy Hustings and supporters are also urged to carry out personal actions in support. More details at https://stopsizewellc.org/
Ends//… For more information please contact the NFLA Secretary Richard Outram by email to richard.outram@manchester.gov.uk
Datganiad Cyfryngau NFLA 26 Mai 2024
Mae cyhoeddiad yr Etholiad Cyffredinol yn bwrw amheuaeth ar uchelgeisiau niwclear y Torïaid.
I’r Awdurdodau Lleol Di-Niwclear, mae cyhoeddiad y Prif Weinidog Rishi Sunak y bydd Etholiad Cyffredinol yn cael ei gynnal ar 4 Gorffennaf yn bwrw amheuaeth ar ddatblygiad cynllun uchelgeisiol y Llywodraeth Geidwadol ar gyfer cynhyrchu niwclear newydd.
Gyda Llafur yn yn uchel yn yr arolygon barn, pe bai pleidleisio’n cyfateb i ymdeimlad y cyhoedd, yna newid llywodraeth fydd y canlyniad mewn tirlithriad. Yn ddiddorol, yr etholiad hwn fydd yr etholiad cyntaf a gynhaliwyd ym mis Gorffennaf ers 1945, ac rydym i gyd yn gwybod sut aeth hwnnw.
Ym mis Ionawr, cyhoeddodd y llywodraeth Geidwadol ei Map Ffordd Niwclear sifil gyda’i chynllun i gwblhau tair gorsaf bŵer niwclear fawr newydd, defnyddio fflyd o adweithyddion modiwlaidd ‘bach’ ac ‘uwch’ fel y’u gelwir, a buddsoddi mewn ymchwil pŵer ymasiad a datblygu tanwydd niwclear newydd.
Er ei fod yn dechnegol yn dilyn niwclear newydd, mae a yw Llafur mewn grym yn parhau i droedio’r llwybr niwclear yn bell o fod yn sicr. Byddai gweinidogion Llafur yn wynebu llu o alwadau ariannol cystadleuol o ddechrau eu tymor newydd mewn llywodraeth. Yn ei chyfnod olaf mewn grym (1997 i 2010), ni adeiladodd Llafur unrhyw orsafoedd pŵer niwclear newydd; O ganlyniad, efallai y bydd y Map Ffordd Niwclear sifil yn y pen draw wedi’i olchi i ffwrdd i’r un graddau â siaced wlyb Rishi Sunak wrth iddo gyhoeddi’r etholiad.
Roedd diwrnod y cyhoeddiad yn brysur o’r cychwyn. Roedd disgwyl i’r Gweinidog Niwclear Andrew Bowie gwrdd â chynrychiolwyr o gyrff anllywodraethol gwrth-niwclear yn bersonol yn swyddfeydd ei Adran Diogelwch Ynni a Sero Net. Roedd eraill i fod i ymuno â’r Gweinidog ar-lein. Er bod y cyfarfod wedi’i drefnu wythnosau o flaen llaw, penderfynodd Mr Bowie yn hytrach dorri a rhedeg; Roedd sibrydion bod roedd Mr Bowie wedi penderfynu gwneud taith funud olaf i’r Wylfa yng Ngogledd Cymru, ond, gan fod y rhain wedi bod yn ddi-sail hyd yma, efallai mai clirio ei ddesg oedd e yn unig?
Roedd Claire Coutinho yn ei gweithred olaf fel Ysgrifennydd Ynni newydd gyhoeddi’r diffyg newyddion bod safle Wylfa wedi’i glustnodi fel lleoliad dewisol y llywodraeth ar gyfer y trydydd pwerdy niwclear gigawwat. Mae hyn wedi bod yn amlwg iawn i unrhyw un sy’n arsylwi datblygiadau yn y diwydiant niwclear ers peth amser. Mae Mr Sunak, ac o’i flaen ef Boris Johnson, wedi glafoerio dros ddatblygu’r safle hwn dros unrhyw un arall ac roedd caffael y safle yn ddiweddar gydag Oldbury am £160 miliwn gan Great British Nuclear oddi wrth y cyn-berchnogion Horizon yn gynharach eleni wedi gwneud y dewis hwn yn sicrwydd.
Os caiff ei adeiladu, a chofiwch fod cynlluniau blaenorol wedi dod i ddim byd, mae’n debygol y byddai Wylfa B yn debyg o ran maint i’r rhai sy’n cael eu hadeiladu yn Hinkley Point C yng Ngwlad yr Haf ac wedi’u cyhoeddi ar gyfer Sizewell C yn Suffolk. Mae’r ddau yn cael eu hadeiladu gan y cynhyrchydd trydan Ffrengig sy’n eiddo i’r wladwriaeth, EDF, gyda dau Adweithydd dan bwysau Ewropeaidd (EPRs) gyda chynhwysedd cynhyrchu 3.2 Gigawatt.
Er bod Hinkley ymhell y tu ôl i’r amserlen a thros gyllideb yn fawr ac mae EDF wedi ymrwymo’n ariannol i Sizewell C, mae’r cwmni hefyd wedi mynegi diddordeb mewn datblygu Wylfa B. Mae’n hysbys hefyd fod gan y consortiwm Americanaidd, Bechtel a Westinghouse a chynhyrchydd gwlawriaethol pŵer De Corea KEPCO ddiddordeb yn y safle.
Byddai Wylfa B, fel Sizewell C, yn cael ei adeiladu ar risg ariannol trethdalwyr Prydain y disgwylir iddynt ddirisgio’r prosiect ar gyfer y datblygwr trwy roi taliadau cyfnodol iddynt i’w had-dalu am eu buddsoddiad, a thalu unrhyw gostau ac amser sy’n gor-redeg, trwy osod treth niwclear ar filiau trydan.
Bydd yr Aelod Seneddol Ceidwadol lleol dros Ynys Môn, Virginia Crosbie yr ‘Atomic Kitten’ fel mae’n hoffi cyfeirio at ei hun, yn croesawu’r newyddion am yr Wylfa. Mae Ms Crosbie wedi treulio llawer o’i hamser yn y swydd yn hyrwyddo ei hetholaeth fel ynys ynni niwclear, ac mae hi bellach yn wynebu her gref gan ymgeisydd Plaid Cymru, Arweinydd Cyngor Ynys Môn, Llinos Medi.
Er hynny, mor ddiweddar â mis Chwefror 2021, yn ei adroddiad 906 tudalen argymhellodd Arolygiaeth Gynllunio’r DU wrthod Gorchymyn Cydsyniad Datblygu ar gyfer cynllun gan Horizon, is-gwmni i Hitachi, i adeiladu gorsaf bŵer niwclear newydd ar y safle. Cyfeiriodd swyddogion cynllunio a benodwyd gan y Llywodraeth at yr effaith debygol ar boblogaethau adar môr y môr-wenoliaid o amgylch Bae Cemlyn ac ar Safleoedd o Ddiddordeb Gwyddonol Arbennig. Canfuwyd hefyd y gallai’r mewnlifiad o hyd at 7500 o weithwyr yn ystod y gwaith adeiladu “hyd yn oed gyda’r lliniaru arfaethedig, effeithio’n andwyol ar dwristiaeth, yr economi leol, iechyd a lles a’r iaith a’r diwylliant Cymraeg”.
Cafodd y cais ei dynnu’n ôl wedyn gan Horizon gyda Hitachi yn nodi diffyg cyllid gan y llywodraeth ac anallu’r consortiwm i sicrhau cyllid sector preifat arall.
Wrth ymateb i’r cyhoeddiad, dywedodd Robat Idris ar ran Pobl Atal Wylfa B/People Against Wylfa B (PAWB):
“Mae niwclear yn ddeinosor technoleg hen ffasiwn.
“Maen nhw’n sôn am ddiogelwch ynni – ond lle mae pyllau glo wraniwm Prydain? Mae un peth yn sicr – mae gennym ddigon o adnoddau naturiol – gwynt, haul, hydro a morol. Ac mae buddsoddiadau masnachol ledled y byd yn pentyrru i ynni adnewyddadwy. Gallwn drawsnewid ynni erbyn 2030 gyda’r ewyllys a’r buddsoddiadau gwleidyddol cywir. Nid felly gyda niwclear.
“Ac yng Nghymru sy’n dioddef o dlodi ynni affwysol, mae’n rhaid i ni hawlio perchnogaeth o’r chwyldro ynni gwyrdd sy’n disodli ynni niwclear – fydd hynny ddim yn digwydd gyda chorfforaethau allanol a Llywodraeth Prydain yn bwlio eu ffordd i’n defnyddio er eu lles eu hunain.”
Ychwanegodd Dylan Morgan o PAWB:
“Rydyn ni’n gwybod bod gweithfeydd pŵer ymhell dros amser a thros yr amcangyfrif cost erbyn iddyn nhw ddod yn weithredol.
“Rydym yn wynebu dwy her ddirfodol fel dynoliaeth – newid hinsawdd a difodiant niwclear. Byddai pwerdy Wylfa B yn rhy hwyr i gyfrannu at y frwydr yn erbyn newid hinsawdd.
“Byddai pwerdy Wylfa B yn ychwanegu at beryglon rhyfel niwclear ac yn darged posib i derfysgaeth. Deinosor na ddylid ei atgyfodi yn sicr!”
Ymddangosiad y Gweinidog Niwclear yn Fforwm NGO Niwclear DESNZ oedd y cyntaf i gael ei drefnu mewn bron i flwyddyn. Ymunodd Richard Outram, aelod o’r fforwm â chydweithwyr i anfon llythyr protest wedi’i eirio’n gryf at Mr Bowie am fethu ag anrhydeddu ei ymrwymiad.
Dywedodd Richard: “Mae’n destun gofid mawr bod y Gweinidog wedi dewis canslo ei ymddangosiad ar y funud olaf yn hytrach na wynebu’r cwestiynau fforensig a drefnwyd iddo gan fy nghydweithwyr arbenigol uchel eu parch yn y grŵp cyrff anllywodraethol. Dyma’r patrwm arferol gan fod y grŵp NGO yn aml wedi cael cynnig hanner ymddiheuriadau munud olaf gan weision sifil ar ran Gweinidog absennol”.
Beirniadodd Stop Sizewell C y rhagolygon ar gyfer Sizewell C.
Dywedodd y Cyfarwyddwr Gweithredol Alison Downes: “Mae’r amhosibilrwydd o wneud penderfyniad buddsoddi terfynol ar Sizewell C cyn yr etholiad yn caniatáu i’r Ceidwadwyr beidio ag arwyddo HS2 arall. Mae hefyd yn cyflwyno cyfle i lywodraeth Lafur debygol, fydd yn ceisio lleihau biliau a chyrraedd sero net erbyn 2030, i ganolbwyntio ar brosiectau adnewyddadwy mwy cost-effeithiol. Byddwn yn gwneud popeth o fewn ein gallu i sicrhau bod yr etholiad hwn yn arwydd o farwolaeth ar gyfer Sizewell C araf, drud, peryglus.”
Mae Stop Sizewell C yn deall bod y codiad cyfalaf yn dal i fynd rhagddo, gyda cheisiadau terfynol i fod i gael eu cyflwyno erbyn diwedd mis Mehefin. Gall newid tebygol yn y llywodraeth gynyddu’r risgiau a ganfyddir gan fuddsoddwyr a dylanwad neu hyd yn oed atal ceisiadau. Bydd y codiad cyfalaf yn destun asesiad Gwerth am Arian (VfM). Os, fel yr adroddwyd, mae buddsoddwyr yn ceisio enillion uchel, mae’r VfM – ac felly’r codiad cyfalaf – yn debygol o fethu.
Os felly, byddai’n rhaid i Weinidogion benderfynu a ddylid gwneud Penderfyniad Buddsoddi Ariannol gyda’r trethdalwr fel cyfranddaliwr mwyafrifol Sizewell C. Bydd angen asesiad Gwerth am Arian ychwanegol yn ogystal â nifer o gamau a chymeradwyaethau gweithdrefnol mewnol. Er bod safbwynt datganedig Llafur o blaid Sizewell C, goblygiadau gorfod gwneud FID sy’n gofyn am biliynau o bunnoedd o arian trethdalwyr ac a fyddai hefyd yn gwthio llawer o’r risg ar filiau cartrefi trwy ddefnyddio’r model ariannu Sylfaen Asedau a Reoleiddir, yn ogystal â’r amhosibilrwydd y gallai Sizewell C gyfrannu at y nod o sero net erbyn 2030, gall beri saib. Mae costau a chwyddiant cynyddol yn gwneud amcangyfrif y llywodraeth bresennol o RAB Sizewell C yn costio £1 mis i ddefnyddwyr ar gyfartaledd yn annhebygol.
Byddai disgwyl i lywodraeth newydd gynnal Adolygiad o Wariant cyn cyllideb yr hydref, sy’n debygol o arwain at saib cyn i unrhyw benderfyniad am Sizewell C FID gael ei wneud.
Hyd yn oed mewn achos annhebygol iawn y gallai FID gael ei wthio ymlaen yn gyflym, mae canllawiau cyn etholiad yn nodi y dylai Gweinidogion “arsylwi disgresiwn” wrth wneud cyhoeddiadau mawr. Mae’n rhaid i hyn fod yn arbennig o berthnasol os oedd angen ymrwymiad mawr o arian trethdalwyr ar gyfer FID Sizewell C. Mae £2.5 biliwn mewn arian trethdalwyr eisoes wedi’i ymrwymo ar gyfer gwaith rhagarweiniol ar y prosiect.
Mae Stop Sizewell C yn bwriadu gwahodd ymgeiswyr etholiad i Hustyngau Ynni ac anogir cefnogwyr hefyd i weithredu’n bersonol i gefnogi. Rhagor o wybodaeth yn https://stopsizewellc.org/
Diwedd//… Am ragor o wybodaeth, cysylltwch ag Ysgrifennydd yr NFLA, Richard Outram drwy e-bost at richard.outram@manchester.gov.uk
