If the United Arab Emirates (UAE) aimed to keep its underwhelming National Determined Contribution (NDC) target under the radar, timing its announcement the day after the US presidential election offered convenient cover. However, their efforts to pack something bad as good didn’t go unnoticed.
UAE’s NDC commits to cut emissions by 47% (compared with 2019 levels) by 2035, an improvement against their previous target of 40%. However, this lacks credibility without robust safeguards against inflated accounting. And even more troubling: there’s a glaring omission of exported emissions – really concerning for a country that exports 63% of the oil it produces!
“The UAE’s so-called climate target is essentially a greenwashing exercise and it decided to bury its bad news on the day of the US election results. Science unequivocally warns that fossil fuel expansion is incompatible with a livable future, yet the UAE now leads the world in oil and gas expansion, even after assuming the role of COP president with a mandate to transition away from fossil fuels. This ‘climate commitment’ brazenly undermines its own credibility and COP Presidential legacy” – Andreas Sieber, Policy and Campaigns Associate Director, 350.org
Overall score: INSUFFICIENT
The overall emission reduction target has improved compared to the previous NDC, however it is not clear about how it will be achieved – is it through a real fossil fuel phase out, or does it rely on unproven and dangerous technologies such as carbon capture? The renewable energy target, on the other hand, has no improvements compared to the last one and is even more unclear: what does “clean” energy mean?
All of that combined with UAE’s expansion plans for oil, moves us further away from the 1.5C heating goal.
Does the NDC include an economy-wide GHG reduction target, aligned with the 1.5C goal? | The UAE promises to reduce its emissions by 47% by 2035 compared to the 2019 baseline – which is good. But this target does not include exported emissions – and it is among the world’s 10 largest oil producing countries in the world! 63% of the UAE’s oil is exported. |
Does the NDC include fossil fuel phase down/out targets and no new fossil fuel expansion? | The target is to remove 12% of “clean” coal from its energy mix, but there is no target for an oil phase down/out. With its current fossil fuel expansion plans, the UAE’s projected increase in oil and gas production to 2035 is 34%.
If that was not already enough for a failed NDC, it also highlights carbon offsetting, carbon capture and direct air capture as key strategies for emissions reduction, without providing specific targets or metrics – relying on unproven technologies and creating room for accounting loopholes. |
Does the NDC include measurable and specific renewables targets, aligned with tripling renewables globally and respecting justice principles? | The NDC targets an increase of 30% in “clean” energy, which is not an improvement to its previous goal but good in terms of ambition.
It’s not measurable or transparent, though, as “clean” doesn’t mean renewable energy and may include nuclear energy or other energy sources that are not actually clean (such as fossil gas and blue hydrogen). |
The UAE was the host of 2023’s UN Climate Conference, COP28, and submitted their NDC on November 7th 2023, just ahead of this year’s climate summit in Azerbaijan.
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