Israel takes us to the brink of another Middle East war

As the death toll in Lebanon increases rapidly as a result of Israeli attacks, our vice-chair Carol Turner writes in depth about the expanding war and the increasing nuclear risks.

Israel’s long and ruthless bombardment of the people of Gaza has dramatically increased in ‘scope, depth, and intensity’, to borrow the words of UN Secretary-General António Guterres, who stated at the UN Security Council that, ‘The raging fires in the Middle East are fast becoming an inferno.’ The latest, and most dangerous phase of Israel’s military operations began on 17-18 September when security forces targeted Hezbollah strongholds in Beirut with exploding phones and pagers. In the two weeks since, Israeli Defence Force (IDF) incursions into Lebanon have expanded into the south of the country.

As in Gaza, so the casualty toll in Lebanon is rapidly rising. Hundreds were reported killed and several thousand injured by the end of the first week of these Israeli attacks. Associated Press reports over 1,000 have been killed since the incursion began, and more than 70,000 are said to have fled Lebanon for Syria. Reports of an air attack on Beirut on 28 September that killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, included claims of Israel’s use of bunker buster munitions in built-up civilian areas which is illegal under international law.

Israel expands its operations

In the period since 16 September, the IDF has also carried out attacks on other Middle East locations and launched airstrikes on Houthi bases in Yemen. The latter have targeted power stations and an oil pipeline in and around the ports of Hodeidah and Ras Issa in Yemen. These ports are located on the Red Sea, over a thousand miles from Israel’s borders.

Confirmation of Nasrallah’s death came on 30 September and drew a reluctant Iran into the conflict. On 1 October, Iran launched 180 ballistic missiles at targets across Israel. Prime Minister Netanyahu responded: ‘Iran made a big mistake tonight and it will pay for it.’

Iran’s engagement has amplified international concerns that Israel is now pushing forward to a wider war by expanding its area of operations and increasing the scope of its targets. Security specialists and senior military figures believe future operations could include strikes against Iranian economic, military, and nuclear facilities, carrying the possibility of an all-out war. Potential targets include Iran’s nuclear enrichment facilities, its oil and gas fields, as well as military targets such as Iranian air defence systems.

Nuclear dangers

Targeting nuclear facilities not only carries the threat of even greater humanitarian danger from nuclear contamination, which could spread across the country depending on weather conditions. An attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities could reinforce the argument of some of the more hawkish figures in the administration, that the country’s conventional defences are insufficient against an Israeli-led war supported by NATO allies, and needs to develop nuclear weapons.

The knowledge of how to do so already exists within the Iranian scientific and engineering community. An attack on Iranian nuclear facilities could precipitate a decision to withdraw from the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and lead to a nuclear-armed Iran in future.

Entrenched attitudes at UN emergency session

Concerns about a wider war in the Middle East were reflected in an emergency session of the UN Security Council on 2 October. The exchanges of fire between the IDF and Hezbollah are repeated violations of UNSC Resolution 1701. Adopted unanimously in 2006, this resolution created a buffer zone between Israel and Lebanon in an attempt to maintain a permanent ceasefire after their war of that same year. Despite violations on both sides, the buffer zone has held until now.

The Israeli Ambassador’s statement at the UN SC emergency session left little room for doubt about his country’s intentions. In what amounted to a declaration of intent, ‘the time for empty calls for de-escalation is over,’ he said. ‘The world must understand Israel will defend itself. It will do so with justice and strength.’

Responding, the Iranian Ambassador said the missile attack of 1 October was ‘a just and proportionate’ action. Reiterating Iran’s preference of avoiding war, he ‘strongly warned against any further act of aggression’. Iran was prepared to take defensive measures to protect its ‘territorial integrity and sovereignty against further acts of aggression’.

In recent weeks, Iran has made clear its willingness to renew its nuclear deal with the US. As recently as a week before the UN SC emergency meeting, for example, Iran called for a renewal of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) – the nuclear agreement negotiated by the Obama administration and agreed between Iran and the five permanent members of the UNSC in 2015, which the Trump administration withdrew from in 2018.

If Israeli attacks escalate, the defensive measures the Iranian Ambassador suggests Iran would be prepared to take could include, for example, withdrawing from the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. As part of the JCPOA, weapons inspections took place and confirmed Iran did not have nuclear warheads, though experts estimated it would be able to develop a bomb in the medium term. Since the Trump administration torpedoed the nuclear agreement, Iran is thought to be closer to developing nuclear warheads.

CND’s response

As I write, Israeli attacks are ongoing on three fronts: Lebanon, the West Bank and Gaza. The US and Britain are standing by as anxieties about Israel targeting Iranian economic, military, and nuclear facilities grow:

• President Biden has made known his opposition to Israeli strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities. He is, however, reported to be discussing with Israel the targeting of Iranian oil pipelines – an action which would require US support.

• There have been no comments as yet from the British government on expanding targets. Following Iran’s air attack, Foreign Secretary David Lammy has repeated his call for an immediate ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel, condemned Iran’s attack on Israel, and reiterated his support for Israel’s right ‘to defend itself’.

The US and Britain must not be allowed to stand aside while Israel pushes the Middle East to the edge of war and they must respond positively to Iranian proposals to restore the JCPOA. The movement which took to the streets of Britain against war on Iraq in 2003 and has done so again in support of the Palestinians, must demand of the British government

No more war in the Middle East!

De-escalation and ceasefire now!

Stop arming Israel!

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