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Read what UCS experts expect from the second Trump administration on climate and energy, food and agriculture, global security, science and democracy, and engaging with states.
Well we’ve been here before—a Trump administration coming on the heels of an administration that prioritized cleaning the air we breathe, tackling climate change, and investing in the future of the auto industry.
Prior to Donald Trump taking office in 2017, the Obama administration had made significant investments in clean vehicle manufacturing and tax credits for zero-emission vehicles. It updated regulatory standards to ensure America’s cars, pick-up trucks, and heavy-duty trucks would get cleaner and more efficient over time.
After President Trump left the White House in 2021, under the Biden administration, billions of dollars have been being invested in clean vehicle and battery manufacturing, electric vehicle incentives, and electric vehicle charging infrastructure as a result of the Inflation Reduction Act and the Bipartisan Infrastructure Laws. In addition, during the last four years, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) updated vehicle standards for cars and trucks to reflect the growing availability of fuel savings and zero-emission vehicle technologies. These standards, the largest climate regulatory action taken by the EPA, will dramatically improve the air we breathe.
Transportation accounts for the largest share of climate change emissions in the US. What happens to clean transportation progress over the next four years will have major consequences for meeting our climate goals.
Based on what President Trump did in his first administration, what he campaigned on this year, and what Project 2025 promises to do, there will be impacts in the second Trump administration for the US auto industry, electric vehicle deployment, mobility choices, and the regulations designed to protect public health and our climate from car and truck pollution.
What clean transportation experts expect will happen
If past is prologue, we can expect the upcoming Trump administration to be as hostile to clean transportation and electric vehicles as it was in its first incarnation.
Last time we saw attacks on vehicle standards—egged on by automakers—when the EPA and Department of Transportation rolled back vehicle emissions and fuel economy requirements for passenger vehicles. We can expect similar, and likely more aggressive efforts, in a second Trump administration.
The Project 2025 playbook (page 426) indicates what these and other efforts to undermine the transition to clean transportation might look like, including restricting California’s ability to set global warming pollution standards and with it, other states’ ability to follow California. Why would this be in the Project 2025 plan? Because California has led the way in cleaning up vehicle pollution for more than six decades, pushing manufacturers to deploy cleaner combustion and zero-emission vehicles and enabling similar progress both nationwide and across the globe.
Clean transportation investments made during the past few years through the Inflation Reduction Act and the Bipartisan Infrastructure Laws may be less vulnerable to executive branch meddling. The investments are congressional acts that would need further congressional action to modify or change. Repealing the Inflation Reduction Act and the Bipartisan Infrastructure Laws are also included in the Project 2025 priorities list (page 365), and the Trump administration could slow walk disbursement of remaining funds.
Short of changing the law, federal departments like the Department of Energy and the Treasury are implementing several provisions related to these laws. Those provisions will be an area the new administration may look towards in pursuing its agenda. Threats to these programs could undermine the historic level of investments being made by private industry in domestic electric vehicle and battery manufacturing and the jobs they are creating, while at the same time making it harder for households to transition to electric vehicles.
The threats are not limited to the the electric vehicle transition underway across the country. Project 2025 also calls for eliminating federal support for public transit (page 636), which is a major source of funding for local transit operations and capital investments.
Amongst many other things, we also can expect to see dismantling of agencies like the EPA through reform efforts, including increasing the number of agency positions that are political appointees versus career staff, proposing restrictive agency budgets, dismantling climate-focused programs, and appointing political ideologues to lead agencies. All of these efforts will serve to undermine the ability of agencies to carry out their mission and may have long-lasting impacts as experts leave or are forced out of their jobs.
A path forward remains despite strong headwinds
The first Trump administration was no friend to clean air or transportation electrification efforts. But with hard work and coordinated efforts, states and advocates were able to blunt attacks and continue progress towards a transportation system that protects public health and limits the release of planet-warming emissions
During the first Trump administration, UCS and our allies helped to oppose the most unqualified agency appointees, made clear the stakes of rolling back emission standards, held automakers accountable, and cut through the misinformation on clean cars and trucks from administration officials and automakers alike. A record number of congressmembers spoke out in favor of clean car standards.
The clean transportation movement even made some forward progress in those years. For example, California was successful in securing a voluntary agreement with several manufacturers to ensure that progress on clean cars would continue despite federal regulatory rollbacks and ensuing lawsuits; this demonstrated that even automakers understand that rolling back vehicle requirement is short-sighted and harmful to their business. Today, electric vehicle sales continue to grow and are poised to grow further as more models come to market and federal investments turn into more charging access across every state in the nation.
There are also opportunities for continuing the momentum toward a zero-emission transportation future, despite the expected headwinds. Many states are committed to clean air, contributing to climate solutions, and moving towards a future of zero-emission cars, trucks, and buses alongside abundant options like transit, walking, and biking. State leadership will be as important as ever in the coming years: states can compel manufacturers to bring clean vehicle products to market, support federal investments in infrastructure, and make investments that prioritize a more comprehensive set of transportation options. There even may be opportunities federally to advance common sense, bipartisan efforts related to electric vehicle battery recycling or clean fuels standards.
What can we do next?
There’s no sugar coating it. The outlook for advancing federal support for electric vehicles and other clean transportation priorities during this administration is grim. But UCS knew a second Trump administration was a possibility, so we are prepared to defend the policies and investments that are building significant momentum in the transportation industry. We will push for electric vehicle sales to continue reaching record levels year over year, and advocate for the billions of dollars of US manufacturing and charging infrastructure investments already happening across the country.
Sustaining this momentum, defending existing policies, stopping bad federal outcomes, and holding automakers accountable to their clean vehicle commitments will be top priorities for UCS. We will support state efforts to fill in the gap in federal policy leadership over the next four years, and we will keep the spotlight on industry actors to ensure they are held accountable for their actions or inactions.
In addition, demonstrating strong support for science-based policies across agencies and speaking up for scientists in federal service has never been more urgent. That’s why the Union of Concerned Scientists will launch a campaign on day one of the second Trump administration to protect the scientists in federal government who get up every day to keep us safe. We will relentlessly oppose anti-science nominees who prioritize the interests of polluters and special interests over the health and safety of people and communities, and we will defend the safeguards that protect the health and safety of people across the US, especially those overburdened by pollution.
We’ll need all of our advocates and supporters to be ready to speak up about climate and life-saving standards and slow down the rolling back of progress.
