10 months ago
50
The race for speaker may seem like inside baseball to many, but House Republicans are undoubtedly weighing how their choice of a leader could help — or hurt — their chance for keeping their thin majority after the 2024 elections.
And as Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) battles Judiciary Committee Chair Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) for the top gavel, Jordan's backers have some new data that may give them something to brag about: signs that swing-district voters aren't significantly alienated by the Ohioan's conservative record.
Hot and fresh data: A new poll from National Public Affairs, showed that for likely voters in 11 key swing districts, 47 percent would be more likely to back their current GOP representative in 2024 if they picked Jordan for speaker. Among Independents that number is 22 percent.
Broadly speaking, the poll showed more than 30 percent of Republican and Independent voters in the 11 swing districts wouldn’t be taking their representive's potential vote for Jordan into account at the polls in 2024.
The poll, whose results was obtained by POLITICO, included 11 districts currently held by vulnerable Republicans, and respondents were asked about their support for their current representative in relation to the speakership elections.
Thirty-two percent of independent voters in these swing districts said that a vote for Jordan would make them less likely to vote for their GOP incumbent representative.
National Public Affairs polled 2,685 likely 2024 general election voters between Oct. 7 and 9 in swing districts in Arizona, California, Iowa, Michigan, Nebraska, New Jersey, New York, Oregon and Virginia.
Fall is for favorability: In general favorability the poll showed Jim Jordan with a 32 percent favorable and 43 percent unfavorable rating; Scalise had a 30 percent favorable and 35 percent unfavorable rating.
