Labour expects surge of ‘shy Reform’ voters in some northern and Midlands seats

Activists forecast margins of less than 2,000 votes separating them from Farage’s party – or even a shock defeat

• How boundary changes may affect key constituencies

Labour candidates and activists are privately braced for a surge in support for Nigel Farage’s hard-right Reform UK in north-west England and the Midlands, with some forecasting a margin of less than 2,000 votes between the two parties in some seats in Thursday’s general election.

In certain Conservative-held seats, campaigners told the Guardian that the Tories were likely to be pushed into third place by Reform, with one citing the phenomenon of “shy Reformers” affecting the results.