Labour gains in leave areas may cut swing needed for overall majority

Analysis reveals voters switching from the Tories in pro-Brexit seats could make a Starmer election victory easier to achieve

Voters are switching from the Tories to Labour in the most pro-Leave parts of the country in such numbers that Keir Starmer may need a far lower overall swing from the Conservatives to win a parliamentary majority than was previously believed, election analysts have claimed.

In their analysis of last week’s local elections, Professors Robert Ford of Manchester University and John Curtice of Strathclyde University both noted that the bigger the 2016 vote was for Leave in an area, the higher the swing was to Labour.