Models downplay wrath of what they sow

1 month ago 30

Models that analyze what is driving up the temperature all too often omit specific sources, or when included, models all too often downplay their contribution. Accordingly, policies that are promoted based on such models are all too often ineffective or even counter-productive.

Methane is all too often referred to as 'natural gas' originating from wetlands, swamps, cows and pigs, as if calling methane 'natural' implied that human activities were not responsible for such emissions. Moreover, people with vested interests all too often suggest that such 'natural emissions' should be captured and used for heating, cooking or industrial purposes, to offset 'human emissions'. Similarly, forest fires are all too often referred to as 'wildfires', as if human activities were not responsible for them.

The compilation of images below shows forest fires as the largest source of carbon dioxide emissions on October 26, 2024. An image of carbon monoxide is also added (bottom right), as carbon monoxide is an indicator of forest fires. Carbon monoxide is also important since it is a precursor of tropospheric ozone and carbon monoxide depletes tropospheric hydroxyl radicals, thus extending methane's lifetime.

The methane image (top right) shows a high presence of methane in northern Europe. The cause for this is the high temperatures anomaly in northern Europe on October 26, 2024, resulting in strong decomposition of vegetation, which comes with high emissions of carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide and methane.

The high temperatures anomaly in northern Europe is illustrated by the above image. The image also illustrates polar amplification of the temperature rise, one of the mechanisms that drives up the temperature rise. Numerous mechanisms driving up the temperature rise are discussed in an earlier post that warns about a Double Blue Ocean Event. Thawing permafrost can cause huge emissions of carbon dioxide (CO₂), methane and nitrous oxide.

The image below, from an earlier post, shows a trend added based on August 2009 through July 2024 data. If this trend continues, 1200 ppm CO₂ could be crossed in early 2035. In other words, the clouds tipping point could get crossed in early 2035 due to rising CO₂ alone, and because this tipping point is measured in CO₂e, this could occur well before 2035 when including the impact of further forcers.

[ from earlier post ]

Rising emissions could originate from many sources, the more so as more sinks turn into sources.

[ from earlier post ]

Climate Emergency Declaration

Instead of omitting such emissions, all mechanisms driving up the temperature should be fully included in any action plan that seeks to improve the situation. Multiple policy instruments and combinations of policy instruments should be considered for implementation, preferably through local feebates.

The situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group.