Monday briefing: The calculations and confusion that could lead Iran and Israel into all-out war

In today’s newsletter: Mohammad Ali Shabani, editor of Amwaj.media, explains the internal dynamics in Tehran, and what Israel and America may do next

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Good morning. For the first time, Iran has launched a direct attack against Israel from its own soil – and the Middle East stands closer to an all-out regional war than at any point since 7 October.

Tehran has claimed that it now views the exchange, prompted by an Israeli attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus, as over. The United States, meanwhile, said that it does not seek war with Iran. The crucial question is whether Benjamin Netanyahu feels the same way – and while two members of his war cabinet signalled on Sunday night that there would be no immediate response, there was no word from the prime minister himself.

Disability | The rollout of universal credit is on course to make thousands of working-age disabled people significantly poorer, a new report has warned. A single person with a long-term disability that prevents them from working is £2,800 a year worse off when they transfer to universal credit (UC), the Resolution Foundation said.

Sydney stabbings | The family of the Bondi Junction attacker have described his actions as “truly horrific”, offered condolences to the loved ones of the victims and expressed support for the police officer who ended the attack by shooting him dead. Police say Joel Cauchi had mental health problems and moved from Queensland to New South Wales a month before he killed six people in Sydney on Saturday.

Health | The British government was willing to risk infecting NHS patients to get “lower-priced” blood products, according to a document that campaigners claim proves state and corporate guilt in one of the country’s worst ever scandals. Internal company minutes produced by Immuno AG in 1976 say that “the British market will accept a higher risk of hepatitis for a lower-priced product”.

Childcare | England’s childcare system is falling behind those of much of the rest of the world, a UK charity for gender equality and women’s rights has said. A report by the Fawcett Society found that the English system was “crumbling” in comparison to other countries undergoing significant reform.

Theatre | Jamie Lloyd’s bombastic reimagining of Sunset Boulevard was the standout show at this year’s Olivier awards, with seven wins including best actress in a musical for Nicole Scherzinger. Mark Gatiss and Sarah Snook also won acting awards, while best new play went to James Graham’s football drama Dear England. See pictures from the ceremony.