OBR warns UK government finances face major headwinds until 2028

Independent forecaster’s health check says economy is proving resilient but growth plan faces tougher tests over next five years

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The government’s finances face significant headwinds over the next five years, despite efforts by the chancellor to boost economic growth, according to the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), the Treasury’s independent forecaster.

In an updated financial health check to accompany the autumn statement, the OBR said a more resilient economy this year had handed the chancellor a £27bn budget windfall, but warned of difficult times ahead, with inflation only coming back to the Bank of England’s official 2% target in the first half of 2025, a year later than previously forecast.