Paris Agreement thresholds crossed

The NASA temperature anomaly vs. 1903-1924 through July 2024 shows that the temperature has been above 1.5°C for the past thirteen months, as illustrated by the image below. The red line shows the trend (one-year Lowess Smoothing) associated with the rapid recent rise.

On August 8, 2024, the daily global air temperature anomaly was +0.75°C and the anomaly has been at about the same level for over the past 13 months, as illustrated by the image below, adapted from Copernicus. 

The current temperature is higher than the temperature at this time of year in 2023, which is remarkable given that we were in an El Niño back in August 2023, while a transition to La Niña around August-October 2024 is expected, as illustrated by the image below, adapted from NOAA.



In fact, feedbacks could cause a transition to a new El Niño while temperatures remain high and while sunspots will be reaching the peak of this cycle, which - in combination with further events and variables - could constitute a cataclysmic alignment that could result in runaway temperature rise by 2026, as an earlier post concluded.

Note that neither the 1903-1924 base (image top) nor the 1991-2020 base (above image) are pre-industrial. When using a genuinely pre-industrial base, the temperature anomaly has over the past thirteen months also been above the 2°C threshold that politicians at the 2015 Paris Agreement pledged wouldn't be crossed.

Meanwhile, the IPCC keeps downplaying the danger, e.g. by claiming that we're still well below the 1.5°C threshold.
The above image, from an earlier post, shows that the February 2024 temperature was 1.76°C above 1885-1915, potentially 2.75°C above pre-industrial (bright yellow inset right). The red line (6 months Lowess smoothing) highlights the steep rise that had already taken place by then.

Climate Emergency Declaration

The situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group.