Projected increase in global runoff dominated by land surface changes

Nature Climate Change, Published online: 17 April 2023; doi:10.1038/s41558-023-01659-8

Global runoff is subject to multiple influences with high uncertainties in its projections. The authors show that global runoff is expected to increase mainly due to vegetation and soil moisture responses to rising CO2 and radiative forcing, rather than through direct effects of climate change.