Rochdale byelection confirms dissatisfaction but little else is certain

Bizarre circumstances behind George Galloway’s sweeping victory makes implications for national politics unclear

The Rochdale byelection was an extraordinary electoral event. Not only did the combined share of the vote for the Conservatives and Labour drop by 63 percentage points – the worst result for the big two since the wartime byelections of 1941-45 – but the Liberal Democrats, Greens and Reform UK all slipped as well. However, Rochdale’s circumstances were so bizarre that one must be careful when drawing general conclusions about the implications for national electoral politics.

The stereotype of Rochdale is that it is a deprived Labour stronghold. Although the town does struggle with social problems, the constituency includes some prosperous suburban and rural areas to the east of the town. Rochdale’s electoral history is varied and volatile. Labour has faced competition from the Lib Dems, who held the seat in 1972-97 and 2005-10. In 2015 the Lib Dem vote plunged and Ukip came second, in 2017 the Conservatives surged, and in 2019 the Tories polled their highest share of the vote since they last won the seat in 1955.