Russia-Ukraine war live: air raid alarms sound in Kyiv and Kherson; Bakhmut reaching stalemate, say US thinktank

Residents urged to head to shelters amid warnings of strikes; Institute for the Study of war says Russia'n forces in Bakhmut have likely ‘culminated’

Analysts at the US-based Institute for the Study of War believe that Russia has reached a stalemate in Bakhmut, with “several indicators support[ing] the assessment that Russian forces around Bakhmut have culminated”.

On Wednesday, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy said “only a few” civilians remained in the embattled frontline city, which is in the eastern province of Donetsk. In a post on Telegram, Ukraine’s leader said of the city that “there is no place that is not covered with blood”.

US military doctrine defines culmination as the “point at which a force no longer has the capability to continue its form of operations, offense or defense,” and “when a force cannot continue the attack and must assume a defensive posture or execute an operational pause.” If Russian forces in Bakhmut have indeed culminated, they may nevertheless continue to attack aggressively. Culminated Russian forces may continue to conduct ineffective squad-sized assaults against Bakhmut, though these assaults would be very unlikely to make operationally significant gains.