Skeptical Science New Research for Week #48 2024

Open access notables

Progression of ocean interior acidification over the industrial era, Müller & Gruber Gruber, Science Advances:

Ocean acidification driven by the uptake of anthropogenic CO2 represents a major threat to ocean ecosystems, yet little is known about its progression beneath the surface. Here, we reconstruct the history of ocean interior acidification over the industrial era on the basis of observation-based estimates of the accumulation of anthropogenic carbon. Across the top 100 meters and from 1800 to 2014, the saturation state of aragonite (Ωarag) and pH = −log[H+] decreased by more than 0.6 and 0.1, respectively, with nearly 50% of the progression occurring over the past 20 years. While the magnitude of the Ωarag change decreases uniformly with depth, the magnitude of the [H+] increase exhibits a distinct maximum in the upper thermocline. Since 1800, the saturation horizon (Ωarag = 1) shoaled by more than 200 meters, approaching the euphotic zone in several regions, especially in the Southern Ocean, and exposing many organisms to corrosive conditions.

Light Limitation of Poleward Coral Reef Expansion During Past Warm Climates, Kruijt et al., Geophysical Research Letters:

The latitudinal range of modern shallow-water tropical corals is controlled by temperature, and presently limited to waters warmer than 16–18°C year-round. However, even during Cenozoic climates with such temperatures in polar regions, coral reefs are not found beyond >50° latitude. Here, we test the hypothesis that daily available solar radiation limited poleward expansion of coral reefs during warm climates, using a new box model of shallow marine coral calcification. Our results show that calcification rates start to decline beyond 40° latitude and drop severely beyond 50° latitude, due to decreasing winter light intensity and day length, irrespective of aragonite saturation. This suggests that light ultimately prohibits further poleward expansion in warm climates. In addition, fossil coral reef distribution is not a robust proxy for water temperatures and poleward expansion of reefs beyond 50° latitude is not an expected carbon cycle feedback of climate warming.

Estimated human-induced warming from a linear temperature and atmospheric CO₂ relationship, Jarvis & Forster, Nature Geoscience:

Assessing compliance with the human-induced warming goal in the Paris Agreement requires transparent, robust and timely metrics. Linearity between increases in atmospheric CO2 and temperature offers a framework that appears to satisfy these criteria, producing human-induced warming estimates that are at least 30% more certain than alternative methods. Here, for 2023, we estimate humans have caused a global increase of 1.49 ± 0.11 °C relative to a pre-1700 baseline.

Climate-Induced Saltwater Intrusion in 2100: Recharge-Driven Severity, Sea Level-Driven Prevalence, Adams et al., Geophysical Research Letters:

Saltwater intrusion is a critical concern for coastal communities due to its impacts on fresh ecosystems and civil infrastructure. Declining recharge and rising sea level are the two dominant drivers of saltwater intrusion along the land-ocean continuum, but there are currently no global estimates of future saltwater intrusion that synthesize these two spatially variable processes. Here, for the first time, we provide a novel assessment of global saltwater intrusion risk by integrating future recharge and sea level rise while considering the unique geology and topography of coastal regions. We show that nearly 77% of global coastal areas below 60° north will undergo saltwater intrusion by 2100, with different dominant drivers. Climate-driven changes in subsurface water replenishment (recharge) is responsible for the high-magnitude cases of saltwater intrusion, whereas sea level rise and coastline migration are responsible for the global pervasiveness of saltwater intrusion and have a greater effect on low-lying areas.

Weather as Fuel—The Wicked Problem of Renewable Energy, Seitter, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society:

A key component of mitigating climate change is reducing society’s dependence on fossil fuels, which will require replacing them with clean energy sources. The key strategy being pursued in the United States (and most other countries) is to rapidly scale up our use of renewable energy sources. Electricity generation provided by wind turbines and solar photovoltaic panels, in particular, has been growing rapidly, and most energy experts expect them to be the dominant forms of electricity generation in the future. Given the dependence these energy sources have on weather conditions (windiness and cloudiness, respectively), it is useful to view weather as the “fuel” for these renewables in the same way that coal or natural gas serves as the fuel in generating electricity in a fossil-fuel power plant. This paper uses a novel thought experiment to drive home this concept, while also exploring the complexity of providing reliable power on a grid dominated by renewable generation. The paper then shows how the transition to renewable energy falls into the class of problems known as “wicked problems” and discusses approaches that will be needed to make progress. The current status of addressing these complex issues is reviewed through the lens of the wicked problem paradigm.

From this week's government/NGO section:

The 2024 EPA Automotive Trends Report. Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Fuel Economy, and Technology since 1975, Hula et al., Environmental Protection Agency

The authors summarize information about new light-duty vehicle greenhouse gas emissions, fuel economy, technology data, and auto manufacturers' performance in meeting the agency’s GHG emissions standards. The model year (MY) 2023 vehicle fuel economy reached a record high while greenhouse gas emissions dropped to record low levels. All 14 large automotive manufacturers comply with EPA’s light-duty greenhouse gas program requirements through the MY 2023 reporting period. Today, the new MY 2023 electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles on the road have led to 11% lower CO2 emissions.

Climate Obstruction Across Europe, Brulle et al., Climate Social Science Network

In Italy and Germany, far-right networks spread misinformation by questioning climate science’s validity, while in Spain and the UK, blame-shifting and deflecting responsibility for climate action is common. European-based fossil fuel industries, like Shell, engage in greenwashing, by framing gas as a ‘bridging technology crucial for the energy transition’, delaying genuine progress. Climate obstruction is defined as the intentional actions and efforts to slow or block policies on climate change that are commensurate with the current scientific consensus of what is necessary to avoid dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.

Documenting Duke Energy’s Early Knowledge and Ongoing Deception About Climate Change, David Anderson and Sue Sturgis, Energy and Policy Institute

According to the authors, the utility companies that comprise today’s Duke Energy Corporation were privy to early warnings about climate change in the 1970s, well before the phenomenon emerged as a major public issue in 1988. Duke Energy utilities’ history of involvement in industry groups that acknowledged the climate change risks of burning fossil fuels for electricity as far back as the 1960s and ‘70s. Duke Power, Carolina Power & Light, Public Service Indiana, and other utilities now owned by Duke Energy used the looming threat of climate change caused by burning fossil fuels to promote nuclear power as a climate solution since the 1980s. Duke utilities began backing disinformation campaigns in the 1990s that denied the science on the human causes of climate change and opposed binding national and international legal limits on greenhouse gas emissions. Duke Energy’s recent efforts to block policy solutions to climate pollution and delay the transition to clean energy through new investments in methane gas and by pushing back plans to phase out coal.

143 articles in 51 journals by 880 contributing authors

Physical science of climate change, effects

An increasing delay in vegetation spring phenology over northern snow-covered landmass driven by temperature and snowmelt, Xiong et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.110310

Decadal Changes in the Pathways of the Atlantic Water Core in the Arctic Ocean Inferred From Transient Tracers, Körtke et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans Open Access 10.1029/2024jc021419

Distilling the Evolving Contributions of Anthropogenic Aerosols and Greenhouse Gases to Large-Scale Low-Frequency Surface Ocean Changes Over the Past Century, Dong et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl112020

Estimated human-induced warming from a linear temperature and atmospheric CO₂ relationship, Jarvis & Forster, Nature Geoscience Open Access 10.1038/s41561-024-01580-5

Irreversible changes in the sea surface temperature threshold for tropical convection to CO₂ forcing, Park et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01751-7

Ozone trends and their sensitivity in global megacities under the warming climate, Vazquez Santiago et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-024-54490-w

Reductions in atmospheric levels of non-CO₂ greenhouse gases explain about a quarter of the 1998-2012 warming slowdown, Su et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01723-x

Revisiting climate impacts of an AMOC slowdown: dependence on freshwater locations in the North Atlantic, Ma et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.adr3243

The Nonlinear and Distinct Responses of Ocean Heat Content and Anthropogenic Carbon to Ice Sheet Freshwater Discharge in a Warming Climate, Gorte et al., Earth's Future Open Access 10.1029/2024ef004475

Observations of climate change, effects

20^th century climate warming and human disturbance triggered high aquatic production and strong water-column mixing in maar Lake Xiaolongwan, northeastern China, Tu et al., Anthropocene 10.1016/j.ancene.2024.100442

Accelerated Historical and Future Warming in the Middle East and North Africa, Malik et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access pdf 10.1029/2024jd041625

Canadian Record-Breaking Wildfires in 2023 and Their Impact on US Air Quality, Chen et al., Atmospheric Environment 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2024.120941

Early Season 2023 Wildfires Generated Record-Breaking Surface Ozone Anomalies Across the U.S. Upper Midwest, Cooper et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2024gl111481

Global Solar Droughts Due To Supply-Demand Imbalance Exacerbated by Anthropogenic Climate Change, Lei et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2024gl112162

Impact of the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool Warming on Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall Pattern, Yadav, International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.8691

Lake Cold Spells Are Declining Worldwide, Wang et al., Geophysical Research Letters 10.1029/2024gl111300

Lengthening Atlantic Hurricane Seasons with Earlier Storm Formation Dates Including Implications from 2020, Keim et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0507.1

Recent emergence of Arctic atlantification dominated by climate warming, Wang et al., Science Advances 10.1126/sciadv.adq5235

Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects

Detection, attribution and projection of changes in the extreme temperature range in the Northern Hemisphere, Feng & Qian, Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2024.10.006

Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects

A Slower North Equatorial Countercurrent but Faster Equatorial Undercurrent in a Warming Climate, Li & Fedorov, Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0738.1

An intensification of surface Earth’s energy imbalance since the late 20^th century, Li et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01802-z

Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation slowdown modulates wind-driven circulations in a warmer climate, Mimi & Liu, Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01907-5

More than three-fold increase in compound soil and air dryness across Europe by the end of 21^st century, Shekhar et al., Open Access 10.21203/rs.3.rs-3143908/v2

Multi-month forecasts of marine heatwaves and ocean acidification extremes, Mogen et al., Nature Geoscience Open Access 10.1038/s41561-024-01593-0

Northern Hemisphere Atmospheric Blocking in CMIP6 Climate Projections Using a Hybrid Index, Lohmann et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0589.1

Projected Changes in Diurnal Temperature Range Over India Using a Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Regional Climate Model, Jayasankar & Misra, International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.8696

Projected North Equatorial Current/Countercurrent toward an El Niño–Like Condition in the Western Pacific under Moderate and Worst-Case CO2 Emission Scenarios, Hsin et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-24-0035.1

Zonally Asymmetric Increase in Southern Ocean Heat Content, Hague et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0623.1

Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection

A Comprehensive Analysis of Uncertainties in Warm-Rain Parameterizations in Climate Models Based on In Situ Measurements, Zhang et al., Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences Open Access pdf 10.1175/jas-d-23-0198.1

An improved and extended parameterization of the CO2 15 µm cooling in the middle and upper atmosphere (CO2&cool&fort-1.0), López-Puertas et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-4401-2024

Evaluating an accelerated forcing approach for improving computational efficiency in coupled ice sheet-ocean modelling, Zhou et al., Open Access 10.5194/gmd-2023-244

Increasing model resolution improves but overestimates global mid-depth circulation simulation, Guo et al., Scientific Reports Open Access 10.1038/s41598-024-80152-4

Lightweight climate models could be useful for assessing aviation mitigation strategies and moving beyond the CO₂-equivalence metrics debate, Arriolabengoa et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01888-5

Revisiting the “East African Paradox”: CMIP6 Models Also Struggle to Reproduce Strong Observed Long Rain Drying Trends, Schwarzwald & Seager, Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-24-0225.1

Steric Sea Level Rise and Relationships with Model Drift and Water Mass Representation in GFDL CM4 and ESM4, Krasting et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0591.1

Cryosphere & climate change

A Factor Two Difference in 21st-Century Greenland Ice Sheet Surface Mass Balance Projections From Three Regional Climate Models Under a Strong Warming Scenario (SSP5-8.5), Glaude et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl111902

Impact of climate change on snow avalanche activity in the Swiss Alps, Mayer et al., The Cryosphere Open Access 10.5194/tc-18-5495-2024

Polar ice sheets are decisive contributors to uncertainty in climate tipping projections, Rosser et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01799-5

Radium fingerprinting traces hydrology of the global cryosphere under climate warming, Zhang et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2024.104654

Shorter Ice Duration and Changing Phenology Influence Under-Ice Lake Temperature Dynamics, Oleksy & Richardson, Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences Open Access 10.1029/2024jg008382

The Two-Decade Evolution of Antarctica's Hektoria Glacier and Its 2022 Rapid Retreat From Satellite Observations, Fluegel & Walker, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl110592

Understanding the drivers and predictability of record low Antarctic sea ice in austral winter 2023, Espinosa et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01772-2

Sea level & climate change

Climate-Induced Saltwater Intrusion in 2100: Recharge-Driven Severity, Sea Level-Driven Prevalence, Adams et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl110359

Including sea-level rise and vertical land movements in probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for the Mediterranean Sea, Grezio et al., Scientific Reports Open Access 10.1038/s41598-024-79770-9

Paleoclimate & paleogeochemistry

Response of atmospheric CO₂ changes to the Abyssal Pacific overturning during the last glacial cycle, Zhang et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2024.104636

Biology & climate change, related geochemistry

A global overview of marine heatwaves in a changing climate, Capotondi et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01806-9

Arctic plant-fungus interaction networks show major rewiring with environmental variation, Parisy et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01902-w

Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on the Distribution of Endangered and Endemic Changnienia amoena (Orchidaceae) Using Ensemble Modeling and Gap Analysis in China, Liu et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.70636

Asymmetric impacts of climate change on thermal habitat suitability for inland lake fishes, Xu et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-024-54533-2

Climate change effect on the widely distributed Palearctic plant bug species (Insecta: Heteroptera: Miridae), Namyatova et al., PeerJ Open Access 10.7717/peerj.18377

Climate models drive variation in projections of species distribution on the Grand Banks of Newfoundland, Ruiz-Diaz et al., PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000520

Colonization and extinction lags drive non-linear responses to warming in mountain plant communities across the Northern Hemisphere, Bekta? et al., Ecography Open Access pdf 10.1111/ecog.07378

Competitive interactions modify the direct effects of climate, Christiansen et al., Ecography Open Access 10.1111/ecog.07322

Enhanced Net Community Production With Sea Ice Loss in the Western Arctic Ocean Uncovered by Machine-Learning-Based Mapping, Zhou et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl110931

Enhanced warming and bacterial biomass production as key factors for coastal hypoxia in the southwestern Baltic Sea, Hepach et al., Scientific Reports Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-024-80451-w

Fouling community shows high resistance and metabolic resilience towards experimental high intensity heatwave, Gauff et al., Marine Environmental Research Open Access 10.1016/j.marenvres.2024.106813

Land Use and Climate Change Accelerate the Loss of Habitat and Ecological Corridor to Reeves's Pheasant (Syrmaticus reevesii) in China, He et al., Open Access 10.22541/au.172487594.48988896/v1

Light Limitation of Poleward Coral Reef Expansion During Past Warm Climates, Kruijt et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl111757

Long-Term Soil Warming Drives Different Belowground Responses in Arbuscular Mycorrhizal and Ectomycorrhizal Trees, Chari et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.17550

Low average shoreline change rate in 51 years on the raised Aldabra Atoll, Constance et al., Scientific Reports Open Access 10.1038/s41598-024-74595-y

Major distribution shifts are projected for key rangeland grasses under a high-emission scenario in East Africa at the end of the 21^st century, Messmer et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01731-x

Measuring the Response Diversity of Ecological Communities Experiencing Multifarious Environmental Change, Polazzo et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.17594

Mortality Patterns and Recovery Challenges in Millepora alcicornis after mass bleaching event on Northeast Brazilian Reefs, Vidal et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2024.106864

Performance of Acanthina monodon juveniles under long-term exposure to predicted climate change conditions, Paredes-Molina et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2024.106855

Recurrent marine heatwaves compromise the reproduction success and long-term viability of shallow populations of the Mediterranean gorgonian Eunicella singularis, Sarda et al., Marine Environmental Research Open Access 10.1016/j.marenvres.2024.106822

The trade-offs associated with the adaptions of marine microalgae to high CO₂ and warming, Liang et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2024.106853

Too Hot to Handle: A Meta-Analytical Review of the Thermal Tolerance and Adaptive Capacity of North American Sturgeon, Dichiera et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.17564

Trends and Projections in Climate-Related Stressors Impacting Arctic Marine Ecosystems—A CMIP6 Model Analysis, Steiner & Reader Reader Steiner, Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans Open Access 10.1029/2024jc020970

GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry

A Test of Functional Balance Theory for Wetland Biomass Allocation in a Global Change Experiment, Bruns et al., Geophysical Research Letters 10.1029/2024gl110902

Annual grass invasions and wildfire deplete ecosystem carbon storage by >50% to resistant base levels, Maxwell et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-024-01795-9

Carbon stocks and sequestration from small tree patches in grassland landscapes in Aotearoa-New Zealand, Richards et al., Climate Policy 10.1080/14693062.2024.2427710

Characterizing and predicting carbon emissions from an emerging land use perspective: A comprehensive review, Luo et al., Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2024.102141

Coastal Supra-Permafrost Aquifers of the Arctic and Their Significant Groundwater, Carbon, and Nitrogen Fluxes, Demir et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl109142

Development of a high-spatial-resolution annual emission inventory of greenhouse gases from open straw burning in Northeast China from 2001 to 2020, Song et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access 10.5194/acp-24-13101-2024

Emissions of methane from coal fields, thermal power plants, and wetlands and their implications for atmospheric methane across the south Asian region, Dangeti et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access 10.5194/acp-24-12843-2024

Exploring the factors influencing the carbon sink function of coastal wetlands in the Yellow River Delta, Tang et al., Scientific Reports Open Access 10.1038/s41598-024-80186-8

GHG emissions intensity analysis. Case study: Bioethanol plant with cogeneration and partial CO₂ recovery, Galván et al., Energy for Sustainable Development 10.1016/j.esd.2024.101598

Hydrography of the Inner Basins in Hornsund (Svalbard): Heat Advection Near Tidewater Glaciers, Jain et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 10.1029/2024jc021273

Improved estimates of net ecosystem exchanges in mega-countries using GOSAT and OCO-2 observations, Zhang et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-024-01910-w

Overlooked Vital Role of Persistent Algae-Bacteria Interaction in Ocean Recalcitrant Carbon Sequestration and Its Response to Ocean Warming, Zhao et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.17570

Progression of ocean interior acidification over the industrial era, Müller & Gruber Gruber, Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.ado3103

Seasonal CO₂ amplitude in northern high latitudes, Liu et al., Nature Reviews Earth & Environment 10.1038/s43017-024-00600-7

Soil carbon in the world’s tidal marshes, Maxwell et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-024-54572-9

Spatial and temporal variations of gross primary production simulated by land surface model BCC&AVIM2.0, Li et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2023.02.001

Tidal influence on carbon dioxide and methane fluxes from tree stems and soils in mangrove forests, Yong et al., Biogeosciences Open Access 10.5194/bg-21-5247-2024

CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering

Advancing the frontiers of CO₂ geological storage: A statistical and computational perspective, Li et al., Earth 10.1016/j.earscirev.2024.104906

Public demand for carbon capture and storage varies with information, development magnitude and prior familiarity, Kim & Ladenburg, Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-024-01900-y

Synergies of storing hydrogen at the crest of CO2${rm CO}&{2}$ or other gas storage, Rhouma et al., Greenhouse Gases: Science and Technology Open Access pdf 10.1002/ghg.2278

Decarbonization

Carbon footprint distributions of lithium-ion batteries and their materials, Peiseler et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-024-54634-y

Causal inference to scope environmental impact assessment of renewable energy projects and test competing mental models of decarbonization, Gazar et al., Environmental Research: Infrastructure and Sustainability Open Access 10.1088/2634-4505/ad8fce

Climate change and its influence on water systems increases the cost of electricity system decarbonization, Szinai et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-024-54162-9

Cost and carbon-intensity reducing innovation in biofuels for road transportation, Scott, Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114416

Hydroclimate risk to electricity balancing throughout the U.S, Dennis & Grady, Environmental Research: Infrastructure and Sustainability Open Access 10.1088/2634-4505/ad92a5

Mirages or miracles? Lithium extraction and the just energy transition, , Van Nostrand's Scientific Encyclopedia Open Access 10.1002/0471743984.vse8883

Power sector benefits of flexible heat pumps in 2030 scenarios, Roth et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01861-2

Research on low carbon welding scheduling based on production process, Meng et al., Scientific Reports Open Access 10.1038/s41598-024-79555-0

Simulation and projection of photovoltaic energy potential over a tropical region using CMIP6 models, Ojo & Adesemoye, Journal of Atmospheric and Solar 10.1016/j.jastp.2024.106384

Solar for tenants: Survey evidence on design and framing of citizen-financed photovoltaic projects in Switzerland, Brückmann et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103819

Weather as Fuel—The Wicked Problem of Renewable Energy, Seitter, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Open Access pdf 10.1175/bams-d-23-0289.1

Geoengineering climate

From informal to formal governance of solar radiation management, Brent et al., Climate Policy 10.1080/14693062.2024.2430688

Unexpected Warming From Land Radiative Management, Cheng & McColl, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl112433

Black carbon Aerosols

Anthropogenic Aerosols Have Significantly Weakened the Regional Summertime Circulation in the Northern Hemisphere During the Satellite Era, Kang et al., AGU Advances Open Access 10.1029/2024av001318

Observation-Constrained Climate Change in China over 1850–2014 by Aerosols in CMIP6 Models, Qin & Liao, Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-24-0204.1

Climate change communications & cognition

A framework for classifying climate change questions used in public opinion surveys, Kenny et al., Environmental Politics Open Access 10.1080/09644016.2024.2429264

Climate actions on the neighbourhood level—Individual, collective, cultural, and socio-structural factors, Klöckner et al., PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000424

Climate change messages can promote support for climate action globally, Ballew et al., Global Environmental Change 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2024.102951

Evidence Gap: Data from Clinical Contexts Needed to Better Support Youth Experiencing the Mental Health Impacts of Climate Change, Daly et al., Journal of Environmental Psychology Open Access 10.1016/j.jenvp.2024.102492

The various forms of anger about climate change in Australia and their relations with self-reported actions, intentions, and distress, Stanley et al., Journal of Environmental Psychology Open Access 10.1016/j.jenvp.2024.102490

Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change

Forest fertilization transiently increases soil CO₂ efflux in young Norway spruce stands in Sweden, Håkansson et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Open Access 10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.110287

Lower methane and nitrous oxide emissions from rice-aquaculture co-culture systems than from rice paddies in southeast China^,, Fang et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2023.109540

Modeling biochar effects on soil organic carbon on croplands in a microbial decomposition model (MIMICS-BC&v1.0), Han et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-4871-2024

Soil pH Determines Nitrogen Effects on Methane Emissions From Rice Paddies, Tang et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.17577

Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change

Assessing future flood risks in megacity suburbs under shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) scenarios: A case study of Beijing, Jia et al., Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2024.102208

Projections and Physical Drivers of Extreme Precipitation in Greenland & Baffin Bay, Loeb et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access pdf 10.1029/2024jd041375

Climate change economics

Author Correction: World economies’ progress in decoupling from CO₂ emissions, Freire-González et al., Scientific Reports Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-024-75404-2

Financing high-cost measures for deep emission cuts in the basic materials industry – Proposal for a value chain transition fund, Hörbe Emanuelsson et al., Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114413

Climate change mitigation public policy research

1 + 1 > 2? The synergistic effect of carbon emissions reduction policies: empirical evidence from China, Jiang et al., Climate Policy 10.1080/14693062.2024.2424230

Beyond dark money: Information subsidies and complex networks of opposition to offshore wind on the U.S. East Coast, Slevin et al., Energy Research & Social Science 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103829

Climate whataboutism and rightwing populism: how emissions blame-shifting translates nationalist attitudes into climate policy opposition, Kulin, Environmental Politics Open Access 10.1080/09644016.2024.2431393

Do economic trade-offs matter in climate policy support? Survey evidence from the United Kingdom and Australia, Bell et al., Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114430

1 + 1 > 2? The synergistic effect of carbon emissions reduction policies: empirical evidence from China, Jiang et al., Climate Policy 10.1080/14693062.2024.2424230

Beyond dark money: Information subsidies and complex networks of opposition to offshore wind on the U.S. East Coast, Slevin et al., Energy Research & Social Science 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103829

Climate whataboutism and rightwing populism: how emissions blame-shifting translates nationalist attitudes into climate policy opposition, Kulin, Environmental Politics Open Access 10.1080/09644016.2024.2431393

Energy transformation in parliamentary debates: shifting from technologies to climate strategy in Finland, Matschoss et al., Environmental Politics 10.1080/09644016.2024.2431395

Enhancing anticipatory governance to accelerate just energy transitions in Australia, Riedy, Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103839

Is net zero net positive? – Opportunities and challenges for pursuing a socio-economically sensitive net-zero transition for India, Narassimhan et al., Climate Policy Open Access 10.1080/14693062.2024.2432931

Making soil carbon credits work for climate change mitigation, Mitchell et al., Carbon Management Open Access 10.1080/17583004.2024.2430780

Partisan winds: Group-level polarization and issue-framing propel attitudes about local wind farms, Marcos et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103848

Politicising energy transitions: the political economy of reducing dependence on coal in South Africa’s minerals energy complex, Bookbinder, Environmental Politics Open Access 10.1080/09644016.2024.2429918

Rooftop solar PV in Bhutan: A systemic analysis of feed-in-tariff program, Suberi et al., Energy for Sustainable Development 10.1016/j.esd.2024.101591

Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research

Climate resilience action to policy: embodied community-based climate risk resilience (CBCRR) in drought prone community in Thailand’s economic corridor, Tanwattana & Toyoda, Climate Policy 10.1080/14693062.2024.2430682

Inequity in Population Exposure to Accelerated Warming, Sengupta et al., Geophysical Research Letters 10.1029/2024gl110644

Pathways for urgent action towards climate resilient development, Eriksen et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-024-02190-0

Practitioners’ Needs for Addressing the Challenges of Sea-Level Rise—A Qualitative Assessment, Hirschfeld et al., Earth's Future Open Access 10.1029/2024ef004717

Projections of multiple climate-related coastal hazards for the US Southeast Atlantic, Barnard et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-024-02180-2

Stabilising CO₂ concentration as a channel for global disaster risk mitigation, Lu & Tambakis, Scientific Reports Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-024-79437-5

The Potential for Experimental Evolution to Uncover Trade-Offs Associated With Anthropogenic and Climate Change Adaptation, Griffiths et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.17584

Uncertain climate futures: Cultivating 3?A resilience in urban Ghana, Agyei et al., Environmental Science & Policy 10.1016/j.envsci.2024.103952

Climate change impacts on human health

Increases of Compound Hot Extremes Will Significantly Amplify the Population Exposure Risk Over the Mid–High Latitudes of Asia, Jiang et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.8689

Climate change & geopolitics

A conceptual framework for responding to cross-border climate change impacts, Talebian et al., Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2024.103949

Other

A hybrid modelling approach to compare chemical separation technologies in terms of energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions, Ignacz et al., Nature Energy Open Access 10.1038/s41560-024-01668-7

Democracy in a hotter time: climate change and democratic transformation, Berger, Australian Journal of Environmental Education Open Access pdf 10.1017/aee.2024.39

Book reviews

Resolving the climate crisis, Stalker & Seiler Sarathchandra, Environmental Politics Open Access 10.1080/09644016.2024.2429252

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Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change

Climate change increased wind speeds for every 2024 Atlantic hurricane: Analysis, Daniel Gilford and Joseph Giguere, Climate Central

All eleven hurricanes in 2024 (as of November 10) intensified by 9-28 mph during the record-breaking ocean warmth of the 2024 hurricane season, strengthening over waters made as much as 2.5°F warmer because of climate change. Climate change made elevated sea surface temperatures in the tracks of 2024 hurricanes up to 800 times more likely. Human-warmed ocean temperatures made major hurricanes Helene and Milton even stronger, adding 16 mph and 24 mph, respectively.

Are Global Companies on Track to Meet Their Sustainability Commitments, Veolia

The authors aimed to answer the following questions; how do public concerns about climate change compare to those of corporations? What is the level of urgency that companies assign to sustainability? What progress has been made, and where are most companies on their sustainability journey? Do companies have a clear plan for how to achieve their sustainability goals? What are the top barriers that companies face in making progress toward sustainability? While 98% of companies view sustainability as important, only 30% see climate change as a "high risk" to their operations. Although 72% of companies claim to be "on track" with their sustainability plans, only 21% report having advanced sustainability programs in place. The study also provides regional and industry breakdowns of sustainability progress.

Benaeth the Surface, Prado-Irwin et al., Center for Biological Diversity

Reservoirs, a major component of California’s water storage system, are a significant source of climate-warming emissions, releasing more greenhouse gases across the state than 300,000 gas-powered cars in a year. Reservoirs are often viewed as carbon neutral but recent studies have shed more light on their environmental harms. From construction to decommission, reservoirs emit methane and carbon dioxide for decades. When reservoirs are filled with water, the plants in the flooded area decompose, releasing harmful climate-warming emissions. While the reservoir is in operation, microbes in the sediment continue to release greenhouse gases, resulting in steady and ongoing emissions. The authors outline climate-resilient solutions like creating permeable “sponge cities” that capture stormwater and nature-based flood management strategies to recharge groundwater. These solutions, when combined with water conservation, can help California meet its fluctuating water needs while still protecting ecosystem health.

Solar Means Business, Solar Energy Industries Association

The authors focus on America’s largest companies but include available data for companies of all sizes. Systems can be located on-site and provide electricity to the facility directly, or off-site and offset grid electricity costs for a company through Virtual Net Metering, Physical and Virtual Power Purchase Agreements (PPA), Green Tariffs or similar arrangements. Both company-owned and third-party-owned (PPA or lease) systems are included. All projects included involve the direct purchase of electricity from a specific installation. Arrangements in which the commercial buyer is only purchasing Renewable Energy Credits (RECs) from a project, or a commercial entity is a Tax Equity investor on the project without consuming electricity from the project are not included. The rankings in the report represent systems operating by the end of Mar 2024

Innovation at the Horizon: Accelerating Innovation of Emerging Hybrid CDR Technologies, Bruce da Silva et al., EFI Foundation

The authors provide a snapshot of current hybrid carbon dioxide removal (CDR) activities across the United States, with a focus on potential innovation breakthroughs. The authors focus on hybrid CDR measures. Hybrid CDR measures incorporate state-of-the-art technological enhancements to leverage the natural processes for carbon absorption, conversion, and storage in the environment. The scope of hybrid CDR measures encompasses aquatic, terrestrial, and mineral techniques

Solutions for managing food security risks in a rapidly changing geopolitical landscape, Talebian et al., Stockholm Environment Institute and Mistra Geopolitics

The authors show that climate change, geopolitical tensions, and geoeconomic division are posing significant risks to global food security. To tackle these challenges, countries can enhance national food production, promote resilient agriculture, minimize food waste, and collaborate. The authors describe how the impacts of climate change threaten food production and trade, with critical implications for food security around the world. Geopolitical tensions and conflicts are also accelerating globally, with 59 active conflicts in 2023, affecting food production and food trade. The relationship between transboundary climate risks and food production under increased geopolitical tensions – like the Russian invasion of Ukraine – is explored in the repor

Documenting Duke Energy’s Early Knowledge and Ongoing Deception About Climate Change, David Anderson and Sue Sturgis, Energy and Policy Institute

According to the authors, the utility companies that comprise today’s Duke Energy Corporation were privy to early warnings about climate change in the 1970s, well before the phenomenon emerged as a major public issue in 1988. Duke Energy utilities’ history of involvement in industry groups that acknowledged the climate change risks of burning fossil fuels for electricity as far back as the 1960s and ‘70s. Duke Power, Carolina Power & Light, Public Service Indiana, and other utilities now owned by Duke Energy used the looming threat of climate change caused by burning fossil fuels to promote nuclear power as a climate solution since the 1980s. Duke utilities began backing disinformation campaigns in the 1990s that denied the science on the human causes of climate change and opposed binding national and international legal limits on greenhouse gas emissions. Duke Energy’s recent efforts to block policy solutions to climate pollution and delay the transition to clean energy through new investments in methane gas and by pushing back plans to phase out coal.

Mind the Regulatory Gap. How to Enhance Local Transmission Oversight, Wayner et al., RMI

Amid the combined challenges of load growth and a changing generation mix, the US transmission grid is in urgent need of expansion and upgrading. However, while spending by US utilities on transmission has quadrupled over the past two decades, spending has moved in the opposite direction of what we need — from high-voltage regional lines to lower-voltage local projects. This is an inefficient way to expand the grid. In addition, the lack of robust review of local projects means they may be costlier and have greater land use and environmental impacts than larger, well-planned regional projects.

Climate Obstruction Across Europe, Brulle et al., Climate Social Science Network

In Italy and Germany, far-right networks spread misinformation by questioning climate science’s validity, while in Spain and the UK, blame-shifting and deflecting responsibility for climate action is common. European-based fossil fuel industries, like Shell, engage in greenwashing, by framing gas as a ‘bridging technology crucial for the energy transition’, delaying genuine progress. Climate obstruction is defined as the intentional actions and efforts to slow or block policies on climate change that are commensurate with the current scientific consensus of what is necessary to avoid dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.

The First Biennial Report from the European Commission to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change under the Enhanced Transparency Framework, European Commission

The authors examine the European Union's progress towards reaching the 2030 target, progress in assessing the effects of EU climate policies and measures in reducing greenhouse gas emissions and building resilience to climate change, as well as contributions to international capacity building and climate finance. As of 2022, the EU’s net greenhouse gas emissions had fallen by 31.8%since 1990. Preliminary data show a further drop of 8% in 2023, which would represent a total reduction of 37% since 1990. The EU has laid out a potential pathway to a 90% net greenhouse gas emissions reduction by 2040, ensuring progress toward climate neutrality by 2050. In 2023, the EU and its Member States contributed €28.6 billion in public climate finance and mobilized an additional €7.2 billion in private finance for developing countries to reduce emissions and adapt to climate impacts.

How the U.S. Power Grid Kept the Lights on in Summer 2024, Denholm et al., National Renewable Energy Laboratory

Despite continued growing loads, there were no major bulk power system outages in the summer of 2024. Solar and storage generation, along with wind, thermal, hydropower, and other resources, played a central role in keeping the lights on. Solar and storage deployment has been increasing rapidly, especially in Texas and California, and helped serve peak demand this summer. During the hour of peak demand on Texas’s grid, solar generated about 18 GW, providing approximately 21% of total generation.

U.S. Investments in Electric Vehicle Manufacturing, Moe Khatib, Atlas Public Policy

The electric vehicle (EV) market is growing rapidly, with vehicle and battery manufacturers committing to invest nearly $1.2 trillion globally in the transition from gas-powered to EVs. Of this total, $312 billion is expected to be invested into U.S. manufacturing, with nearly 71 percent of that amount – $223 billion – already allocated to specific facilities and initiatives. As the industry enters a critical period in the EV transition, Ateh authors analyzed the latest press releases, company earnings reports, and public resources to provide insights into global investment in EV manufacturing and how the investment environment has evolved since January 2023.

The Effects of “Buy American”: Electric Vehicles and the Inflation Reduction Act, Allcott et al., National Burau iof Economic Research

The authors study electric vehicle (EV) tax credits in the US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), the largest climate policy in US history, with three goals. First, they provide the first ex-post microeconomic welfare analysis of this central component of the IRA. Event studies around changes in eligibility for EV tax credits find that short-run economic incidence falls largely on consumers. Additionally, domestic content restrictions on tax credits for purchased vehicles have driven enormous shifts to leasing. Their equilibrium model shows that compared to the pre-IRA policy, IRA EV credits generated $1.87 of US benefits per dollar spent in 2023, at a taxpayer cost of $32,000 per additional EV sold. Compared to scenarios with no EV credits, however, the IRA EV credits created only $1.02 of benefits per dollar of government spending. Second, they characterize the gains from policies targeting heterogeneity in externalities across vehicles. They found that relative to uniform credits, differentiating credits across EVs according to their heterogeneous externalities would substantially increase policy benefits. Third, they quantify tradeoffs in the IRA EV credits between foreign and domestic welfare and between trade and the environment. They found that the IRA EV credits benefit the environment but undermine trade since they decrease global carbon emissions but use profit shifting to decrease foreign producer surplus. A controversial IRA loophole that removes domestic content restrictions on tax credits for EV leases has negative domestic benefits.

New York ISO 2024 Reliability Needs Assessment Key Findings, New York Independent System Operator

NYISO’s 2024 RNA evaluates the future reliability of the New York electric grid considering forecasts of power demand, planned upgrades to the transmission system, public policy requirements, and changes to the generation mix over 10 years. The RNA highlights several risk factors that could adversely affect system reliability in the years ahead. The RNA demonstrates the importance of the NYISO’s planning process and the need to closely monitor the rapidly changing electric grid.

Maine Won't Wait, Maine Climate Council

Backed by the most comprehensive scientific and economic assessments about the effects of climate change in Maine in a decade, Maine Won’t Wait called for decisive steps to reduce carbon emissions and ensure Maine's economy and communities are better prepared for the increasing impacts of climate change. This update advances the work and adds new strategies for the next four years.

Clean Investment Monitor: Q3 2024 Update, Bermel et al., Rhodium Group

Clean energy and transportation investment in the United States continued its' record-setting growth in Q3 of 2024, reaching a new high of $71 billion. This continues a nearly unbroken quarter-on-quarter growth trend over the past three years and marks a 12% increase in Q3 of 2024 from the same period in 2023. Clean investment accounted for 5% of total US private investment in structures, equipment, and durable consumer goods in the United States, compared to 4.5% in Q3 2023.

The 2024 EPA Automotive Trends Report. Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Fuel Economy, and Technology since 1975, Hula et al., Environmental Protection Agency

The authors summarize information about new light-duty vehicle greenhouse gas emissions, fuel economy, technology data, and auto manufacturers' performance in meeting the agency’s GHG emissions standards. The model year (MY) 2023 vehicle fuel economy reached a record high while greenhouse gas emissions dropped to record low levels. All 14 large automotive manufacturers comply with EPA’s light-duty greenhouse gas program requirements through the MY 2023 reporting period. Today, the new MY 2023 electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles on the road have led to 11% lower CO2 emissions.

The Energy is About to Shift, Butterworth et al., Acadia Center and Clean Air Task Force

The authors highlight opportunities to accelerate New England's renewable energy progress by addressing local concerns and better equipping communities to meaningfully participate in the siting and approval processes. The laws and policies of most New England states generally target 80% to 100% greenhouse gas emissions reductions below 1990 levels by 2050. Drawing from prominent case studies from around the region, the authors also identify promising options for developers, communities, and policymakers to improve project planning and engagement, helping reduce the risk of failures, legal challenges, and delays.

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Obtaining articles without journal subscriptions

We know it's frustrating that many articles we cite here are not free to read. One-off paid access fees are generally astronomically priced, suitable for such as "On a Heuristic Point of View Concerning the Production and Transformation of Light"  but not as a gamble on unknowns. With a median world income of US$ 9,373, for most of us US$ 42 is significant money to wager on an article's relevance and importance. 

• Here's an excellent collection of tips and techniques for obtaining articles, legally.

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How is New Research assembled?

Most articles appearing here are found via  RSS feeds from journal publishers, filtered by search terms to produce raw output for assessment of relevance. 

Relevant articles are then queried against the Unpaywall database, to identify open access articles and expose useful metadata for articles appearing in the database. 

The objective of New Research isn't to cast a tinge on scientific results, to color readers' impressions. Hence candidate articles are assessed via two metrics only:

• Was an article deemed of sufficient merit by a team of journal editors and peer reviewers? The fact of journal RSS output assigns a "yes" to this automatically. 
• Is an article relevant to the topic of anthropogenic climate change? Due to filter overlap with other publication topics of inquiry, of a typical week's 550 or so input articles about 1/4 of RSS output makes the cut.

A few journals offer public access to "preprint" versions of articles for which the review process is not yet complete. For some key journals this all the mention we'll see in RSS feeds, so we include such items in New Research. These are flagged as "preprint."

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