3 weeks ago
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There are two uncalled Senate races — both leaning toward Democrats — and about two dozen uncalled House races three days after Election Day. With the seats remaining, Republicans have the clear inside track for retaining control of the House.
Nevada Senate: Incumbent Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen padded her lead as more ballots were counted in the Silver State, now leading GOP nominee Sam Brown by around 17,000 votes — or a little more than 1 percentage point. Interestingly, the “none of these candidates” option — a rather unique option in Nevada — is pulling in around three percent of the vote, a potentially decisive figure in this razor-thin contest. Late-counted ballots have consistently favored Rosen. Advantage Rosen.
Arizona Senate: Republican nominee Kari Lake chipped away at Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego’s lead in this contest throughout the counting on Thursday, nabbing a favorable batch of ballots out of critical Maricopa County. Gallego leads by nearly 44,000 votes, with an estimated 76 percent of the vote counted. The state continues to drop results of batches of counted ballots each day, but it may be a while before we have a definitive answer here. Advantage Gallego.
Pennsylvania Senate: The Associated Press called the contest for Sen.-elect David McCormick (R) on Thursday, though Democratic incumbent Sen. Bob Casey has yet to concede. Pennsylvania Secretary of State Al Schmidt estimated there are at least another 100,000 ballots to count in the commonwealth, with the margin in the Senate race standing at under 33,000 votes. That’s a tall order for Casey to make up, but Democrats are urging patience as the ballots are tallied.
House races: There are 25 races remaining to be called by the Associated Press, with California Reps. Julia Brownley (D) and Young Kim (R) seeing their victories confirmed overnight. Republicans currently have 211 called seats, while Democrats have 199 called ones.
A couple of races to highlight:
- Maine’s 2nd: Democratic Rep. Jared Golden is leading by about 2,200 votes over GOP challenger Austin Theriault, but the state’s ranked-choice voting procedures will kick in next week, according to a Thursday news release from the state. Theriault’s campaign has also indicated it will pursue a recount, which would take place following the ranked-choice tabulation, so prepare for a final result to take a while here.
- Washington’s 3rd: Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, consistently seen as one of the most vulnerable Democrats this cycle given the red tinge of her district, has seen her lead over GOP nominee Joe Kent grow to around 11,000 votes as more ballots have been tallied. Around 87 percent of the estimated votes are in, so the incumbent looks to be in prime position for reelection.
- Arizona’s 6th: There were several lead changes throughout the day Thursday as more votes rolled in around this Tucson-adjacent district. Democratic nominee Kirsten Engel currently leads Rep. Juan Ciscomani (R-Ariz.) by just more than 200 votes with about 72 percent of estimated ballots tallied. The fate of this seat may go a long way toward determining whether Democrats have any path of flipping the House, so keep a close eye here.
- California’s 47th: Another crucial seat for Democrats if they hold any hope of regaining House control remains tight as more votes are counted. Democratic nominee Dave Min ate into GOP nominee Scott Baugh’s initial edge on Election Day in this contest to replace Rep. Katie Porter (D-Calif.). The margin is currently just more than 600 votes, with 76 percent of the vote tallied.
