Thursday briefing: Ukrainians believe they can win, but a breakthrough in 2024 looks remote

10 months ago 39

In today’s newsletter: With US support uncertain and the world’s attention drifting, what will happen next in Ukraine?

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Good morning. There’s something insidious about the idea of “Ukraine fatigue”: it could easily lead to the view that what really counts about the Russian invasion is how much interest it excites in the west. In truth, for Ukrainians, resisting the invasion continues to exact a devastating price in the service of an existential cause. While there are no official figures on the toll, an August report estimated 300,000 wounded on both sides, and 190,000 dead.

Nonetheless, it is true that the prospect of some decisive breakthrough routing Russian troops from Ukrainian soil looks more remote than ever. Meanwhile, with another crisis raging in the Middle East, the appetite in western capitals to keep providing the funding and weapons that Kyiv needs has only diminished.

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