Too early to sound the all-clear as impact of UK rate rises yet to be felt

There are some signs that headwinds are easing but economy still looks fragile

• UK economy shrank unexpectedly by 0.3% in March
• Business live: latest updates

The UK economy has been going nowhere for the past year. After rebounding most of the way out of its pandemic trough by early last year, there has been virtually no movement. In three of the last four quarters – including the first three months of 2023 – there was growth of 0.1%, and in the other the economy contracted by 0.1%.

This is unusual. Periods when the economy moves sideways are rare, especially ones that go for as long as a year. They tend to be followed either by recession or recovery, and while the signs are that it will be the latter, it is too soon to say for sure.