Tuesday briefing: What the death of Ebrahim Raisi means for Iran’s political future

In today’s newsletter: Uncertainty surrounds the country’s succession and foreign policy after a shocking crash which killed the president and six others

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Good morning. The death of a president is always an enormously consequential moment – but in Iran, where five days of mourning are under way after Ebrahim Raisi was killed in a helicopter crash on Sunday, the exact nature of those consequences is difficult to parse.

Raisi had been described as a likely successor to Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei – but also as a figure of limited influence, often by the same analysts. His passing has led some to suggest that nothing will change at all, and others to say that, with a presidential election now due within 50 days, this could be a turning point.

Contaminated blood scandal | Thousands of victims of the infected blood scandal and their families are to learn how ministers plan to compensate them after Rishi Sunak pledged to pay “whatever it costs”. The details of the scheme will be set out on Tuesday after the publication of Sir Brian Langstaff’s report yesterday, which said that the calamity could “largely, though not entirely, have been avoided”.

WikiLeaks | Julian Assange has been granted leave to mount a fresh appeal against his extradition to the US on charges of leaking military secrets. Two judges accepted that there was an arguable case that he could be discriminated against, after being told that an US prosecutor has said the first amendment may not protect foreigners’ freedom of speech over national security issues.

Israel-Gaza war | The chief prosecutor of the international criminal court has said he is seeking arrest warrants for senior Hamas and Israeli officials for war crimes and crimes against humanity. The Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, and his defence minister, Yoav Gallant, are among them.

UK news | A nursery worker has been found guilty of killing a nine-month-old baby girl who died after being strapped face down to a beanbag for more than 90 minutes. Genevieve Meehan suffocated after being placed in “mortal danger” by Kate Roughley, the deputy manager of Tiny Toes nursery in Cheadle Hulme, Stockport, the trial heard.

Trump trial | Prosecutors in the Manhattan district attorney’s office rested their case on Monday after Michael Cohen – whose $130,000 hush money payment to the adult film star Stormy Daniels is at the heart of the criminal case against Donald Trump – testified that he knew the payment violated federal election law.