Ukraine update: Revisiting my pre-war look at the looming Russian invasion. Let's see how it held up

Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022. Six days prior, I wrote a preview of the coming war. Now, at the end of 2022, it’s as good a time as any to see how well it has held up. I’m reading it fresh right now as I write, and I will make bracketed editorial notes in italics as I react to my predictions. Theoretically this should be fun, so let’s have at it!