Ukraine update: Russia’s disaster at Avdriivka shows how much things have changed

When Ukraine’s General Staff began logging the number of Russian losses last week, it was at first difficult to credit. It’s usually assumed that Ukrainian estimates of Russian losses are … generous. That’s to be expected. The Ukrainian military is largely compiling reports from the field, and it shouldn’t be surprising that multiple sources might report the same tank taken out, or that a damaged vehicle might be listed as outright destroyed.

But on Oct. 11, Ukraine didn’t report a dozen losses or even two dozen. They reported an astonishing 91 Russian armored combat vehicles destroyed, in addition to 34 tanks. The next day brought another 44 ACVs and 42 tanks. Altogether, over a period of five days, Russian losses were listed at 119 tanks, 233 ACVs, and 4,690 soldiers.

This was not the result of some lightning breakthrough in the south. Or a Ukrainian landing in Crimea, a move that continues to be predicted by sources on Telegram. It’s what happened when Russia decided to try and capture Avdiivka.