Water, Vol. 15, Pages 3040: Estimating Typhoon-Induced Maximum Flood for Spillway Safety Assessment—Case Studies in Taiwan

Water, Vol. 15, Pages 3040: Estimating Typhoon-Induced Maximum Flood for Spillway Safety Assessment—Case Studies in Taiwan

Water doi: 10.3390/w15173040

Authors: Kwan-Tun Lee Yu-Han Hsu Jing-Zong Yang

Dam safety assessment is usually conducted regularly to investigate the risks associated with the dam and propose remedies to ensure effective reservoir operations. One crucial aspect of the evaluation involves performing hydrological analyses to determine if the existing spillway can successfully deliver the probable maximum flood (PMF) downstream. This study applied storm transposition and typhoon rainstorm methods for PMP estimations. The resulting PMP values were then used as input for runoff models to generate flood hydrographs for PMF determination. A modification for the storm transposition method was proposed to determine the barrier height considering the moisture inflow direction. In estimating the orographic rainfall in the typhoon rainstorm model, an effective terrain slope was suggested according to different windward directions based on DEM analysis. Shihmen Reservoir and Feitsui Reservoir, located in northern Taiwan, were used as examples to conduct the PMP and PMF analysis. The obtained PMPs were further compared with the results generated by Hershfield’s method to assess the reasonability of the estimation. The results show that the maximum deviation of the 24-h PMP values estimated by the three methods is within 30% in the Shihmen watershed and 16% in the Feitsui watershed. The PMF estimations in the two reservoir watersheds are larger than the design discharges of the existing spillways. Hence, extending the capacity of the existing spillways or constructing upstream bypasses to avoid catastrophic flooding downstream is required.