3 weeks ago
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This story is part of a series of state-by-state previews of the 2024 election.
Once considered a pivotal swing state in presidential elections, Florida has proved reliably Republican in recent years. A Democrat hasn’t won the state’s Electoral College votes since 2012, when former President Barack Obama succeeded with a margin of less than one percentage point.
Donald Trump has won Florida in both of his campaigns and the state's 30 electoral votes are a cornerstone of his path to top Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris and return to the White House.
Trump won the state by a single point in 2016 and by three points in 2020. Republicans appeared to further tighten their grip on the state in 2022, when Gov. Ron DeSantis and Sen. Marco Rubio comfortably won reelection.
Florida voters will also choose on Election Day whether Republican Rick Scott should have another term in the U.S. Senate. Scott, a former governor of Florida, faces a challenge from Democrat Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, who represented Florida in the U.S. House but lost her reelection bid in 2020.
Further down the ballot are a handful of proposed amendments to Florida’s constitution. Amendment 4 would enshrine abortion rights in the state, while Amendment 3 would legalize the recreational use of marijuana.
Registered Democrats had outnumbered registered Republicans in Florida for at least 50 years dating back to the early 1970s. Republicans overtook Democrats in registration after the 2020 election, and that advantage grew to a lead of about 1 million voters as of August.
Election analysts will be closely watching turnout in Florida, which was pummeled by hurricanes Helene and Milton in the run-up to Election Day.
The AP does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it has determined there is no scenario that would allow the trailing candidates to close the gap. If a race has not been called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.
