Will UN Climate Talks in Azerbaijan Deliver on Finance and Emission Reductions? 

The annual UN climate talks, COP29, will kick off on November 11, just days after the US elections and in a year of numerous consequential elections around the world. Coming at the end of what is certain to be the hottest year on record, with millions of people experiencing devastating climate-fueled disasters and global heat-trapping emissions still rising, this COP has a sobering backdrop. Here’s what’s on the agenda at COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan, and why it matters.

Priorities for COP29

COP29 is being billed as the ‘Finance COP.’ That’s because countries previously agreed under the Paris Agreement that, by the end of 2024, they would decide on the new quantum of climate finance for lower-income countries, building on the previous target of $100 billion/year. While this is the top priority, other important issues will also be on the agenda.

At COP29, world leaders must deliver outcomes that respond to the acute state of the climate crisis, including:

1. An agreement on a robust climate finance goal (aka the new collective quantified goal, or NCQG, on climate finance). As I discussed in a previous blogpost, this funding is crucial for lower-income countries to be able to make a rapid clean energy transition while closing the huge energy poverty gap for millions of people without access to modern forms of energy. It is also essential for these countries’ climate adaptation needs and for addressing their loss and damage from extreme climate impacts. UCS is urging the United States and other rich countries, together with additional contributors in a position to provide funding, to commit to a collective goal of $1 trillion annually starting in 2025. This could be met from a variety of sources—including pollution fees on fossil fuel companies, the elimination of fossil fuel subsidies, and wealth taxes on the richest people. The true need is in the trillions, and it’s only just that richer countries, which are most responsible for heat-trapping emissions, take the lead by paying their fair share. It’s time to also expand the contributor base to include oil-rich countries in the Middle East, Singapore and China, among others. This funding must come primarily in the form of grants or very low-interest loans to avoid exacerbating the debt burden in lower-income nations. Reforming the international multilateral lending architecture to be fairer and more aligned with climate and sustainable development objectives is also critical.
   
2. A strong signal that nations will submit more ambitious emission reduction commitments (aka nationally determined contributions, or NDCs) by February 2025. Numerous scientific reports (see below) show that nations are falling far short of what is needed to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement. The next round of NDCs is due by February, and it will be very important for major emitting nations—including the U.S., EU member states, and China—to significantly ratchet up their targets. UCS is advocating for the US to commit to cutting its emissions at least 70% below 2005 levels by 2035, a level that can be met if we implement additional strong policies (beyond the Inflation Reduction Act and other existing federal and state policies) to accelerate the deployment of renewable energy and the phase out of fossil fuels. Cutting emissions across all sectors and all heat-trapping gases is crucial. Unfortunately, we are currently not even on track to meet our 2030 goal of cutting emissions by 50-52% below 2005 levels, and the choices made by the next administration will make a big difference in our chances of getting there.
   
3. An agreement to adequately resource the UN Loss and Damage Fund and quickly disburse funds to frontline communities. Last year on the opening day of COP28, nations agreed to launch the Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage, a hard-won historic achievement, but one that came with paltry initial pledges. Since then, the World Bank has taken on the role of hosting the fund and serving as its trustee on an interim basis for four years. Now, what’s desperately needed are new funding commitments from countries to help meet the significant and growing needs as the climate crisis worsens. As just one example, earlier this year, heavy rainfall and flooding across Sudan, Nigeria, Niger, Chad and Cameroon, worsened by climate change, killed more than 2,000 people and displaced millions. Climate vulnerable countries need funding to start flowing quickly. The Loss and Damage Fund should also include a community access window providing directly accessible small grants for communities, local civil society organizations, Indigenous Peoples and groups facing marginalization. At COP29, nations—including the United States—must make substantive new pledges to the Fund, and these commitments should also be reflected as part of the overall NCQG negotiations.   
   
4. Clear follow-through on last year’s agreement transition away from fossil fuels. At COP28, as part of the outcome of the first Global Stocktake, countries agreed to transition away from fossil fuels including accelerating action in this critical decade, as well as to triple renewable energy capacity globally and doubling the global average annual rate of energy efficiency improvements by 2030. Despite important gains in renewable energy, there is still more progress needed and fossil fuels continue to expand at odds with this agreement.
   
5. Progress on support for climate adaptation. Adaptation has received far less attention and funding than climate mitigation efforts, even as climate impacts rapidly worsen. A 2023 UN report estimates that the adaptation finance gap is about $ 194-366 billion per year. For many lower-income nations facing punishing climate impacts, this lack of support is increasingly untenable and undermining trust in the global climate regime. Under the NCQG agreement, climate finance for adaptation must be on par with mitigation. At COP28, nations reached agreement on a framework for a Global Goal on Adaptation, but there is much more needed to help implement this aspirational framework including funding, technical assistance, risk and vulnerability assessments, and clear metrics for progress.

Scientific reports sound the alarm (again)

Ahead of COP29, a series of recent scientific reports signal how far off track the world is in meeting its climate goals and the harsh toll of impacts on people—but also point the path to necessary actions that policymakers must secure. These include:

1. IEA’s World Energy Outlook—which shows an incredible growth in renewable energy—especially solar power—and yet a rapidly narrowing window to cut emissions fast enough to reach net zero by mid-century, and the risk of an up to 2.4°C increase in global average temperatures above pre-industrial levels.
   
2. UNEP’s 2024 Emissions Gap Report—which shows that nations’ collective emissions reductions are falling far short of what’s needed, putting the world at risk of a temperature increase of 2.6-3.1°C above pre-industrial levels, and underscoring how world leaders are failing their people.
   
3. The 2024 NDC Synthesis Report—which shows, as UN Climate Change Executive Secretary Simon Stiell said, “current national climate plans fall miles short of what’s needed.” Even if fully implemented, they would put the world on track for a temperature increase of 2.1 to    2.8 °C this century.
   
4. WMO’s latest GHG Bulletin—which shows that heat-trapping emissions surged to record levels in 2023, with the atmospheric concentrations of CO₂ reaching 420ppm, a level never previously experienced by humans.
   
5. The Lancet Countdown on Health and Climate change—which highlights the stark impacts of climate extremes on human health and the economy, including that heat exposure has led to the loss of 512 billion potential labor hours in 2023, worth $835 billion in potential income losses. Countries ranked low and medium on the Human Development Index faced the worst impacts.

What happens at home matters for the world

My colleagues and I will be on the ground in Baku, closely tracking the climate negotiations and pushing for bold, fair outcomes. UCS, working together with a broad coalition of global civil society partners, participates at COP to help ensure that science and justice are represented in these negotiations and that policymakers hear loud and clear what people need them to do. Of course, what happens back home in countries, the policies that are implemented (or not implemented), will make all the difference in whether nations live up to global climate agreements.

UCS is also working hard at home in the United States, seeking greater ambition in clean energy deployment and a phaseout of fossil fuels, together with investments in climate resilience. And we’re advocating for the US to also live up to its global responsibilities to contribute a fair share of climate finance for low- and middle-income countries.

Unfortunately, climate policy spaces—both domestic and international—are increasingly under siege from fossil fuel interests trying to delay or block progress or secure loopholes that would allow them to continue their business-as-usual practices, expanding fossil fuel production and raking in profits while the climate crisis worsens. Policymakers and courts must hold them to account and dismantle their hold over our energy choices and our climate future. Their influence at COP must also be thwarted.

The next couple of weeks in Baku will undoubtedly be intense. We’ll share more as the negotiations unfold, so please stay tuned.